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Economists ponder if Singapore’s trade growth upgrade driven by inflation or external demand

Sharon See
Published Thu, Aug 11, 2022 · 05:40 PM

IT HAD seemed like an oddity that Singapore posted a significant upgrade to its full-year trade outlook – for the second time this year – even as it narrowed its economic growth forecast to a lower range.

While some economists believe the trade growth upgrade is indicative of export resilience, others believe it reflects rising prices rather than demand per se.

Total merchandise trade is now expected to grow 15-16 per cent, rather than the 8-10 per cent projected just 3 months ago, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said on Thursday (Aug 11). The updated outlook for non-oil domestic exports (NODX) is 5-6 per cent, instead of 3-5 per cent.

This comes amid better-than-expected performance from total merchandise trade and NODX in the second quarter, which Enterprise SG said…

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