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When the Fed hikes in an oil shock: What investors should do now

Understanding the central bank’s logic matters for how portfolios should be positioned from here

Summarise
    • Diesel prices in the US are rising. The margin between crude and the diesel refined from it has grown to more than US$100 a barrel, from about US$15 to US$30 before.
    • Diesel prices in the US are rising. The margin between crude and the diesel refined from it has grown to more than US$100 a barrel, from about US$15 to US$30 before. PHOTO: REUTERS
    Published Tue, Sep 22, 2026 · 04:04 PM

    THE US central bank has stopped treating energy-driven inflation as temporary.

    For much of 2026, the question hanging over markets was when the US Federal Reserve would resume cutting rates. At its September meeting, the Fed answered a different question.

    It raised the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 per cent, its first hike since July 2023, and the vote was unanimous. Its updated projections indicate another increase before the year’s end and no cuts in 2027.