Why tomorrow’s winners may not be today’s index leaders

Capital discipline, not just technical ambition, is central to the next phase of returns

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    • Beyond capex, AI is reshaping industries, redirecting profit pools and challenging business models.
    • Beyond capex, AI is reshaping industries, redirecting profit pools and challenging business models. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
    Published Fri, Oct 2, 2026 · 03:00 PM

    THE market has rewarded investors for owning the companies that grew into today’s index leaders. But the next phase of the artificial intelligence cycle may test whether owning the winners of the last cycle is enough.

    The active-passive investing debate is often framed around fees, market efficiency and recent performance. Those issues matter, especially after a decade in which benchmark exposure has been difficult to beat.

    But they can obscure a more fundamental point: A stock is a claim on a company’s future cash flows, and its price reflects today’s expectations for those cash flows.