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东盟+3已成为全球最大市场，而非美国

这一结构性转变对冲击的传导方式产生了可衡量的影响

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    • 雅加达一家购物中心的顾客。东盟拥有近7亿消费者和迅速壮大的中产阶级，是全球经济中增长最快的需求基础之一。
    • 雅加达一家购物中心的顾客。东盟拥有近7亿消费者和迅速壮大的中产阶级，是全球经济中增长最快的需求基础之一。 图片来源：EPA

    Dong He and Allen Ng

    Published Tue, Feb 3, 2026 · 07:00 AM — Updated Wed, Feb 11, 2026 · 02:00 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    美国去年实施的关税重新引发了一种熟悉的论调：当美国消费者减少支出时，亚洲的出口导向型经济体将面临生存威胁。

    这种说法认为，亚细安+3（即中国、日本、韩国和亚细安）本质上仍然是西方消费市场的工厂，很容易受到发达经济体需求中断的冲击。

    这种论调已经过时。全球经济结构已发生转变，而传统分析对此的认识却未能跟上步伐。亚细安+3不再仅仅是世界工厂，它已成为世界最大的市场。

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