霍尔木兹的赌博：特朗普的联盟梦与严峻现实

特朗普的言论与他所依赖国家的沉默之间存在巨大差距，这充分说明了基于压力的多边主义的局限性。

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特朗普此举最引人注目的地方或许是向中国发出的呼吁，而多年来他一直将中国描绘成一个战略对手。图片来源：彭博社

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Leon Hadar

Published Tue, Mar 17, 2026 · 01:04 PM

本文由AI辅助翻译

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霍尔木兹海峡封锁如今已成为对美国总统 Donald Trump 第二个任期外交政策最紧迫且最具揭示性的考验。

自从伊朗为回应美国和以色列的打击而有效封锁了该海峡，导致油价飙升至每桶100美元以上以来，特朗普政府一直在仓促应对。其策略呈现出一种熟悉的形式：极限主义的言辞、双边施压以及呼吁建立一个庞大的多边联盟。但这能否奏效，则完全是另一回事。

联盟策略

Trump 在 Truth Social 上发帖称，“许多国家，特别是那些受伊朗试图关闭霍尔木兹海峡影响的国家，将派遣军舰”，他列举了中国、法国、日本、韩国、英国和“其他国家”作为他希望参与的国家。

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