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群体如何变得更愚蠢

当所有人都思想一致时，预测市场就会失灵

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    • 1906年，在一个乡村集市上，近800人参与了竞猜一头公牛的体重。虽然个人的猜测结果平平无奇，但集体给出的中位数估计值与真实体重的误差在0.8%以内。
    • 1906年，在一个乡村集市上，近800人参与了竞猜一头公牛的体重。虽然个人的猜测结果平平无奇，但集体给出的中位数估计值与真实体重的误差在0.8%以内。 图片来源：PIXABAY

    Stuart Kirk

    Published Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · 03:36 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    在周三（7月1日）世界杯比赛的大部分时间里，群体智慧似乎并未显现。

    预测网站普遍认为英格兰战胜刚果民主共和国的几率极高。然而，直到比赛第74分钟，这支身穿白色球衣的球队仍然处于落后。本周早些时候，德国队在输给巴拉圭队之前曾是夺冠热门，而荷兰队则意外地被摩洛哥队击败。

    让我们暂且不谈足球（别担心，这不会占用太长时间），市场对于今年美元走弱的共识也大错特错。石油预测者们同样茫然不知所措。与此同时，尽管美国股市估值已达疯狂水平，投资者却依然保持乐观。

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