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群体如何变得愚蠢

当思维趋同，预测市场就会失灵

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    • 1906年，在一次乡村集市上，近800人参与了猜牛体重的活动。虽然个人的猜测结果平平，但所有猜测的中位数估值与牛的真实体重误差仅在0.8%以内。
    • 1906年，在一次乡村集市上，近800人参与了猜牛体重的活动。虽然个人的猜测结果平平，但所有猜测的中位数估值与牛的真实体重误差仅在0.8%以内。 图片来源：PIXABAY

    Stuart Kirk

    Published Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · 03:36 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    在周三（7月1日）世界杯比赛的大部分时间里，群体智慧似乎并未显现。

    预测网站曾认为英格兰队有压倒性优势击败刚果民主共和国。然而，这支身穿白色球衣的球队直到比赛第74分钟时仍处于落后状态。本周早些时候，德国队在输给巴拉圭队之前曾是热门，而荷兰队也意外地被摩洛哥队击败。

    让我们把目光从足球上移开（别担心，这部分篇幅不长），关于今年美元将走弱的共识也大错特错。石油预测者们同样感到迷茫。与此同时，尽管美国股市估值已达到疯狂水平，投资者们却依然泰然处之。

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