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“虚假的贸易战”可能即将结束

认为贸易冲击已经发生且尘埃落定的想法，可能与事实相去甚远

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    • 美国全国独立企业联合会 (NFIB) 表示，对人工智能及其基础设施的大量投资粉饰了整体GDP增长和主要股指，掩盖了实体经济的真实情况。
    • 美国全国独立企业联合会 (NFIB) 表示，对人工智能及其基础设施的大量投资粉饰了整体GDP增长和主要股指，掩盖了实体经济的真实情况。 图片来源：法新社

    Mike Dolan

    Published Wed, Oct 15, 2025 · 05:23 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    在经历了北半球夏季一段相对平静的时期后，企业正准备迎接一个更令人紧张的冬季，贸易和经济不确定性将卷土重来，金融市场的波动性也将随之加剧。

    从某些方面来看，过去几个月可能有点像一场虚假的贸易战——这与1939年第二次世界大战爆发后，持续八个月未发生任何重大军事行动的“假战”不无相似之处。

    由于美国大部分关税从8月才真正开始生效，政府数据尚未体现出任何持久影响，而两周前的政府停摆更是让所有新数据的发布陷入停滞。这不仅给局势增添了相当大的迷雾，还带来了一个令人不安的前景：一旦政府恢复运作，大量经济数据可能会一次性冲击市场。从美联储主席到华尔街经济学家，每个人都仍不确定美国这一个世纪以来最大规模的关税上调最终会产生何种影响。

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