中美博弈与金德尔伯格陷阱：为何无所作为（而非冲突升级）才是最大风险

在转型时期，最大的威胁可能并非大国冲突，而是领导力的缺失。

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美国总统 Donald Trump（左）与中国国家主席习近平于2025年10月在釜山会晤。中美竞争最可能的结果并非从一个霸主平稳过渡到另一个，而是一个碎片化的秩序。图片来源：路透社

Tan Kong Yam

Published Tue, Apr 28, 2026 · 07:00 AM

本文由AI辅助翻译

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日益激烈的中美竞争通常被置于冲突的框架下进行解读，其中最引人注目的是所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”（Thucydides Trap），该理论警示一个崛起大国与一个守成大国之间可能爆发战争。

然而，一个同样重要且可以说更具潜在危险的因素，并非直接对抗，而是系统性的忽视。这体现在“金德尔伯格陷阱”（Kindleberger Trap）这一概念中。该理论描述了一种全球不稳定的状况：在位的霸主不愿或无力提供必要的国际公共产品，而崛起中的大国也无法或不愿承担这一角色。

该理论最初源于经济史学家 Charles Kindleberger 的研究，后由政治学家 Joseph Nye 在地缘政治论述中推广开来，其理论基础借鉴了1930年代的经验。

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