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预判市场泡沫的难题

持久的优势并非来自做出更精准的预测，而是遵循更完善的流程

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    • 在市场于一至三年内翻倍后，仅有10%的情况下会出现抹去涨幅的崩盘，而在26%的情况下，市场会再度翻倍。
    • 在市场于一至三年内翻倍后，仅有10%的情况下会出现抹去涨幅的崩盘，而在26%的情况下，市场会再度翻倍。 图片来源：PIXABAY

    Samuel Rhee

    Published Tue, Jun 2, 2026 · 03:52 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    在电影《大空头》中由Christian Bale扮演的逆向投资者Michael Burry，因其洞察到几乎无人能及的先机而声名鹊起——他看穿了2007年抵押贷款支持证券上所贴的“安全”标签，与背后腐烂的贷款毫无关系。

    事实证明他大获全胜，这次预判也成为了金融界的传奇和一部电影的素材。

    但在此后的几年里，他也曾错误地预测了至少两次并未到来的经济衰退。这引出了一个令人不安的问题：他最初的预判是天才之举，还是仅仅时机凑巧？

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