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为何“4%法则”可能不再是退休规划的万全之策

现代经济充满变数，不能用某个国家在特定历史牛市中得出的固定数字来指导

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    • 在整个规划期内，保持支出的灵活性而非固守一个固定金额，将有助于维持投资组合的韧性。
    • 在整个规划期内，保持支出的灵活性而非固守一个固定金额，将有助于维持投资组合的韧性。 图片来源：PIXABAY

    Neo Teng Hwee

    Published Tue, Oct 28, 2025 · 05:21 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    为复杂问题提供的简单思路往往经久不衰。几十年来，“4%法则”一直是退休规划的基石，它为人生中最令人困惑的退休难题之一“多少钱才够用？”提供了一个简单而巧妙的解决方案。

    该法则指出，退休人员可以安全地从其初始退休投资组合中提取4%的资金，并根据通货膨胀率进行年度调整，持续30年。这提供了一种确定性的保障。

    但确定性往往是真相的敌人。“4%法则”并非永恒的物理定律，它基于美国金融史上一个特定且特殊的时期。如今再依赖它，就忽略了不同时间、不同地域乃至不同寿命预期下，投资动态已截然不同的现实。

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