Greek election: politics to shock more than awe

THE Greek general election on Jan 25 looks like a referendum on Greece's membership of the euro. If the Greeks vote for radical left-wing Syriza and its leader Alex Tsipras, a new anti-austerity government could eventually take Greece out of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Alternatively, it could catalyse a series of anti-creditor steps that may lead to Germany and the main creditor countries leaving.

The Greek people don't like the idea of further cuts in living standards but are equally against being treated as international pariahs. Expect protestations from international creditors that, if the Greeks vote for Syriza, they will be "committing suicide", cutting themselves off from foreign loans, sacrificing all previous reform efforts, and so on. Mr Tsipras himself will do his best to sound some diplomatic notes as a man with whom German Chancellor Angela Merkel and others can do business.

The Greek electorate may pull back from the brink and water down support for Syriza. We can expect another coalition. The outcome will be messy. Whatever happens, we face much debate and hand-wringing, a lot of it self-serving and hypocritical, about whether the Germans should live up to their historical pro-European sympathies, relax insistence on orthodoxy and allow a further rescheduling of Greek debts in another deal to keep the euro intact. The Germans don't appear too keen to throw good money after bad.