Turnbull in for hard time even if he gets to form next Aussie government

WHATEVER happens next on the Australian political landscape after the cliffhanger election, it is clear that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is going to be in for a hard time. Australia's preferential voting system means that the vote tally can take a considerable time, especially when results are close; last Saturday's election result for the House of Representatives will be known only in a week or two.

On current trends, Mr Turnbull's coalition may get over the line with a one-seat majority in the 150-member chamber and thus be able to form the government in its own right. Even if it falls short of the 76 seats needed, he is likely to have first dibs on working out a deal with independents to form a minority government. The count for Senate votes will take several weeks. Current trends suggest that the Nick Xenophon Team of three senators would hold the balance of power in that chamber. It is important to note that he is a tough politician who is going to be very demanding in negotiations for his support. He is against most free trade deals and has made it clear that he would use his numbers, if he has a chance, to get a review of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, a World Trade Organization procurement agreement, and other trade deals. The Senate is also likely to see the return of Pauline Hanson. Like Mr Xenophon, she seems to have captured an anti-establishment mood in their respective states. But on top of anger at the elite, her well-known hostility to Asian immigrants and other non-European races seems to have struck a chord among rural white folk. In this, she could also be riding the wave of nativist sentiment observed in several other Western countries such as support for America's Donald Trump and the Brexiters in Britain.

And all this means trouble for Mr Turnbull. His own party colleagues, especially those to his political right who favour previous leader Tony Abbott, can be expected to do everything to undermine his leadership of the Liberal Party and start working to restore Mr Abbott to the top job. Mr Turnbull deposed Mr Abbott in a party coup on the promise that he was better at selling the Liberal-National Party coalition's message. Now that the voters have given their verdict, Mr Turnbull may be forced to hand Mr Abbott a portfolio in his Cabinet - if only to keep his detractors in the party happy. And that means political instability with a divided Cabinet and endless speculation about when Mr Abbott will mount a counter-coup against him. Politics aside, the incoming government may also face economic headwinds. The economy may seem to be doing well in headline numbers, but it has been pointed out that other than the mining sector, "demand is sluggish, profits are weak and investments subdued". Indeed, the country's central bank has warned that the outlook for non-mining business investment will remain grey in the near term. Mr Turnbull hopes his economic agenda, including the free-trade pacts, a 10-year plan to cut the company tax rate to 25 per cent and changes to pension contributions, would keep the economy ticking; he also intends to cut taxes for middle-income earners.