CXMT’s US$1 trillion target gap flags high stakes in chip battle
Its predicted valuation in the next 12 months ranges from US$160 billion to US$1.1 trillion
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[HONG KONG] Analyst opinions are more polarised on CXMT than any other stock in Asia, delineating the key arguments driving volatility in the memory chip stock trade.
In just a week since shares in the Chinese chipmaker were listed, the divide in price targets already ranks among the widest in the region.
If you believe the most bullish analyst, CXMT will be worth US$1.1 trillion in the next 12 months. Listen to the bear and its valuation will be around US$160 billion.
The divergence hinges on how the rise of CXMT will change competition, cyclical dynamics and pricing in the global memory industry.
The implications are huge for incumbent leaders Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology, whose shares suffered a historic sell-off in July after a blistering artificial intelligence-fuelled rally.
“The market may underappreciate the impact CXMT will have,” said Jason Lemire, chief investment officer at Bold Wealth Partners.
“My worry over the medium- and long-term is the erosion of supply discipline that has taken decades to build.”
CXMT bulls believe the company can steal market share in the conventional dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips used in computers and smartphones, helped by China’s drive for tech self-sufficiency.
Some also see the potential for the Hefei-based firm to produce the country’s first high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the advanced DRAM used in AI servers.
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The market share gain story is a key argument for Nomura International analyst Donnie Teng, who has the highest price target on the street at 116 yuan (US$17). That is more than double where the stock closed on Friday.
China consumed a quarter of global DRAM supply in 2025, yet less than one third of that was manufactured locally, a gap that can be filled by CXMT and other local players, Teng wrote in a note starting coverage of the firm with a buy rating.
Memory battle
On the other side is Morningstar analyst Jing Jie Yu, who has the only sell recommendation on CXMT and the lowest target at 16.1 yuan.
He sees the firm winning share but predicts that the increasing industry capacity will drag down DRAM prices in late 2027 and 2028, hurting profits for all producers.
The stock climbed 523 per cent in its first week of trading, while also drawing three buy recommendations and one hold. The initial public offering was seen as heavily underpriced, but the gain also reflects bullishness on the part of investors.
CXMT “has more firepower to actually ramp up on its supplies” due to funds from its share offering, said Jeremy Tan, chief executive officer at Tiger Fund Management in Singapore.
“China can catch up really fast, as we have seen in a number of technologies.”
While CXMT is widely expected to make gains in the DRAM market, the company’s ability to produce high-quality HBM remains a key question.
Although export controls prevent Chinese firms from accessing the cutting edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that are seen as needed to produce HBM, there are potential alternative paths.
A Chinese state-backed company’s reported mass production of immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools rattled global chip stocks last week.
“There are workaround ways using DUV multiple times” to achieve what EUV machines can do in one step, said Bush Chu, a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Investments.
He believes CXMT can match the Korean chipmakers in HBM given China’s rapid progress in legacy DRAM.
Still, China’s image as a tech laggard is difficult to shake and – even with headline-grabbing advances in 2026 from the likes of Moonshot AI and Huawei Technologies and CXMT – has a ways to go to catch up with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
“There’s still a bit of lag – two, three generations behind on various types of chips, though the gap is definitely narrower,” said Robert Li, head of Asia Pacific investment strategy at Barings.
“Memory makers in China still share a reasonably small slice of global memory market share.” BLOOMBERG
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