Trump predicts war will be over quickly, as US and Iran weigh potential deal

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump predicted on Wednesday night (May 6) that the war in Iran will be over quickly, as he seeks a deal to end the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz and Teheran’s nuclear programme.

“When you look at the kind of things that are happening, we are doing that for one very important reason: We cannot allow them to have a nuclear weapon.” Trump said in a tele-rally for Georgia Republican governor candidate Burt Jones. “So I think most people understand that. They understand that what we are doing is right, and it’ll be over quickly.”

Washington has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports, according to a person familiar with the measure, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. Detailed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has yet been agreed.

The initial offer capped off a chaotic 48 hours that illustrates the bind Trump faces as he looks to defuse an energy crisis he helped create by attacking Iran alongside Israel in late February. The move came after Trump suspended a short-lived US mission to offer safe passage for commercial ships through the strait, a vital waterway for oil and gas.

Adding to his urgency is a summit scheduled next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which already was postponed in the early days of the conflict due to the Middle East backdrop. 

Polls show Americans’ distaste for the conflict is growing six months from midterm elections where affordability will be a central focus. Gasoline prices breached US$4.50 a gallon for the first time since July 2022, according to the American Automobile Association. The trajectory has challenged predictions from Trump, who has vowed costs at the pump will plummet when the war ends.

Stocks rose and oil retreated Wednesday, with benchmark Brent crude settling at US$101.27 a barrel, as investors weighed developments in negotiations.

‘If they don’t agree, the bombing starts’ 

Trump on numerous occasions throughout the conflict has indicated that a deal is near, though none has materialised. He acknowledged to the New York Post that it might be “too soon” to think about face-to-face talks to lock up such an agreement. 

Iran is expected to send a response via mediator Pakistan in the next two days, the person familiar said. State media, meanwhile, have signalled that parts of the US proposal remain unrealistic to Iran’s leadership.

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The US will end its military campaign and lift its blockade of Hormuz “assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption,” Trump posted on social media on Wednesday, without giving details of the proposal. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts.” 

In Israel, the prospective deal caused concern, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government pledging to keep pressure on Iran until it is totally defeated and its nuclear, missile and proxy militia programmes dismantled. 

Netanyahu is holding talks with US officials to better understand the situation, CNN reported, citing an Israeli source it did not identify. REUTERS, BLOOMBERG