How Japan lost three million people in five years

[NEW YORK] Japan’s population fell by more than three million over the past five years, official statistics released on Friday (May 29) showed, marking a drop that underscores the depths of the country’s accelerating demographic crisis.

The population stood at 123 million last year, preliminary census results indicated, down from 126.1 million in 2020. This was the biggest decrease since the government began collecting census data in 1920.

Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million and is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070. The country is now roughly the same size it was in 1989.

For decades, the authorities have tried to make up for the rapidly ageing population by encouraging young people to have more children.

But the effort has fallen short, leaving the country with one of the world’s lowest birth rates. For each new birth, there are two deaths.

Japan is a harbinger of the demographic challenges that will soon buffet other developed countries. The shrinking population is already constraining Japan’s economic growth, putting pressure on its healthcare system and causing labour shortages.

The census data showed that the demographic crisis has reached almost every part of Japan. All but two of the country’s 47 prefectures reported population decreases last year, and the rate of decline is accelerating.

Among the hardest-hit areas were the northern prefectures of Akita and Aomori, where the population shrank by 8 per cent from 2020 to 2025. Those areas are home to some of the country’s oldest residents, and young people have left at a rapid rate because of stagnant wages and harsh winters.

The Japanese countryside is hollowing out as the population ages and young people leave to seek jobs in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and other cities.

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In some rural areas, schools are being converted into nursing homes and community centres. Millions of homes are vacant, government offices and hospitals are downsizing, and train lines are shutting down.

Opening Japan’s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration, and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a “Japan First” agenda.

“Japan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run,” said James Raymo, professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. “It simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.”

There were a few bright spots in the census, including Okinawa, a subtropical chain of islands in the south, where the population grew slightly. Okinawa has Japan’s highest fertility rate, with women there giving birth to an average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, compared with 1.1 nationally.

Japan’s biggest cities are managing to stave off demographic decline – for now.

The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, rose slightly to 37 million in 2025. The area now accounts for roughly 30 per cent of Japan’s total population.

Tokyo, a hub of business, politics and culture, is now about 20 times denser than the rest of Japan – and one of the world’s densest cities. Its population rose more than 1 per cent to 14.2 million in 2025.

The growth has been fuelled in large part by an influx of students and young workers looking for jobs and educational opportunities.

Japan’s woes are likely to worsen in the coming decades. It will probably become increasingly difficult to find workers to staff schools, hospitals, police departments and train stations. And the country could lack enough young people to pay the taxes necessary to support retirees.

Prof Raymo said that the Japanese government’s efforts to promote fertility had “not really moved the needle”.

He added that ultimately, Japan could provide lessons for other governments. “More and more countries in Asia and elsewhere will experience similar levels of demographic decline,” he noted. “Japan is just at the forefront and has been at it much longer.” NYTIMES