Recession

Asia ‘absorbs the hit on every axis’: What volatile copper, aluminium prices mean for the region

Analysts note that Asia is most vulnerable to volatility in base metals due to a lack of buffers

History suggests that when energy costs surge, the consequences rarely remain confined to the pump.
THINKING ALOUD

The growing odds of a US stagflation trap

The oil shock from the Iran War could tip the American economy from slowdown into something more problematic

American consumers can already see the impact when buying petrol or plane tickets.

US recession risks begin to rise as war dims economic outlook

Several firms say inflation will now be closer to 3% this year than 2%, eating into disposable incomes and keeping a lid on hiring

“We will have global recession,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said, when asked if oil stays at US$150 a barrel.

BlackRock CEO Fink warns of ‘global recession’ if oil goes to US$150, BBC reports

If war stops but Iran still threatens trade and Hormuz, oil may stay above $100, he says

The precise magnitude of the shock the US will face as a result of its war of choice in Iran is difficult to predict, given the array of factors at play.

America’s war, America’s recession

Why the US is particularly poorly positioned to weather a food and energy-price shock

Tehran, Iran on Mar 22. Iran has determined that it faces an existential threat and seems to have decided that its best course of action is to inflict as much pain as possible on global financial markets.

Recession risks rise for global economy

Recent monetary policy decisions by key central banks signal a rapidly changing outlook

Stephen Miran has argued for larger cuts since he joined the Board of Governors in September. 

Fed risks recession without more interest rate cuts, says governor Miran

He does not foresee an economic downturn in the near term, but thinks rising unemployment should encourage cuts

Although a market crash would surprise almost nobody, few have thought about its consequences.
PERSPECTIVE

How markets could topple the global economy

If the AI bubble bursts, an unusual recession could follow

A net 9% of firms expect their own trading activity will improve in the three months to December and 4% expect to hire workers before the end of the year.

New Zealand firms’ gloomy outlook raises risk of recession

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and most bank economists currently expect growth for the third quarter

Forecasters generally agreed on Monday’s announcement points to a better, though still subdued, outlook for the US economy this year.

US-China truce likely to avert recession but not coming slowdown

Financial markets have also received some support in recent weeks from key gauges of economic activity