Recession

The oil shock from the Iran War could tip the American economy from slowdown into something more problematic

Several firms say inflation will now be closer to 3% this year than 2%, eating into disposable incomes and keeping a lid on hiring

If war stops but Iran still threatens trade and Hormuz, oil may stay above $100, he says

Why the US is particularly poorly positioned to weather a food and energy-price shock

Recent monetary policy decisions by key central banks signal a rapidly changing outlook

He does not foresee an economic downturn in the near term, but thinks rising unemployment should encourage cuts

If the AI bubble bursts, an unusual recession could follow

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and most bank economists currently expect growth for the third quarter

Financial markets have also received some support in recent weeks from key gauges of economic activity