Recession

BlackRock CEO Fink warns of ‘global recession’ if oil goes to US$150, BBC reports

If war stops but Iran still threatens trade and Hormuz, oil may stay above $100, he says

The precise magnitude of the shock the US will face as a result of its war of choice in Iran is difficult to predict, given the array of factors at play.

America’s war, America’s recession

Why the US is particularly poorly positioned to weather a food and energy-price shock

Tehran, Iran on Mar 22. Iran has determined that it faces an existential threat and seems to have decided that its best course of action is to inflict as much pain as possible on global financial markets.

Recession risks rise for global economy

Recent monetary policy decisions by key central banks signal a rapidly changing outlook

Stephen Miran has argued for larger cuts since he joined the Board of Governors in September. 

Fed risks recession without more interest rate cuts, says governor Miran

He does not foresee an economic downturn in the near term, but thinks rising unemployment should encourage cuts

Although a market crash would surprise almost nobody, few have thought about its consequences.
PERSPECTIVE

How markets could topple the global economy

If the AI bubble bursts, an unusual recession could follow

A net 9% of firms expect their own trading activity will improve in the three months to December and 4% expect to hire workers before the end of the year.

New Zealand firms’ gloomy outlook raises risk of recession

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and most bank economists currently expect growth for the third quarter

Forecasters generally agreed on Monday’s announcement points to a better, though still subdued, outlook for the US economy this year.

US-China truce likely to avert recession but not coming slowdown

Financial markets have also received some support in recent weeks from key gauges of economic activity

Southwest is among a growing number of airlines pulling financial guidance for the full year as a lack of economic clarity feeds uncertainty among consumers.

Southwest CEO says US airline industry is already in a recession

The Dallas-based carrier is more dependent on domestic leisure travellers for revenue than US peers with more extensive international operations and corporate business clients

Goldman Sachs economists peg recession risk at 45%, versus 65% before Trump announced the pause.

US economists say recession risk is still high after Trump pivot

[NEW YORK] Wall Street economists maintained their forecasts for a sharp slowdown in US economic growth and warned recession risk is still elevated despite the Trump administration’s decision this wee...

Walmart is prepping for a worsening economy by using its massive footprint to keep prices low and hunt for ways to take market share as tariff-spooked shoppers begin pulling back on spending.

CEOs brace for recession even after tariff reprieve boosts stocks

The tariffs are fuelling a gloomier outlook, with consumers expecting higher prices and spending turning out weaker than expected in February