US economy

Trump turns from Iran to economy as Republicans face midterm headwinds

Polls show a majority of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the war and blame him for rising petrol prices

The oil shock spurred by the conflict has sent petrol prices in the US to their highest level since 2022, leading US inflation to jump in March.

War’s impact on firms goes beyond energy costs: Fed’s Beige Book

A growing number of officials are concerned the war could fuel inflation

In the 12 months through March, import prices shot up 2.1 per cent, the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024.

US import prices increase less than expected in March

Import prices rose 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in February

There are concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could undercut the labour market, especially if households respond to high prices by pulling back spending.

US consumer prices surge as expected in March

The CPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest increase since June 2022

The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7 per cent pace in the fourth quarter.

US Q4 GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate

Revisions to Q4 growth pace reflected downgrades to business spending on intellectual products as well as inventories

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly noted that US consumers were still spending and businesses investing.

US economic fundamentals in a ‘good place’ despite Iran war: US Fed President Daly

SAN Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Wednesday said the US economy is fundamentally in a “good place” despite sharply higher oil prices from the Iran war and the uncertainty over how l...

The war has caused oil prices to surge and renewed upward pressure on inflation, which has run above the Fed’s 2% target for five years.

US inflation expectations jump with Iran war, Fed survey finds

Food costs are seen rising by 6% over the next year

History suggests that when energy costs surge, the consequences rarely remain confined to the pump.
THINKING ALOUD

The growing odds of a US stagflation trap

The oil shock from the Iran War could tip the American economy from slowdown into something more problematic

Services sector employment contracted, with the jobs measure dropping to the lowest level since December 2023.

US service sector cools in March; price paid measure highest in 3½ years

It’s an early sign that the prolonged war with Iran was boosting inflation pressures

Citigroup says weak hiring will push the unemployment rate higher in the summer, similar to the last few years.

Citigroup pushes back Fed rate cut timeline after strong US job numbers

Downside risks for the labour market are mounting from a war with Iran that has no clear end in sight