Asean in a ‘Minus One’ world
When America First means the US chooses when to show up, the region must find its way to live and prosper
THERE are many reasons why US President Donald Trump skipped the recent Group of 20 (G20) summit. Host South Africa is said to have pushed an agenda focused on the concerns of the developing world and climate change. Trump also slammed the country’s domestic policies which he claims discriminate against white Afrikaners.
But whatever the justifications, Trump’s decision to stay away stands in sharp contrast to his recent trip to Asia. That tour encompassed the Asean and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summits as well as bilateral meetings with the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea. Some say that Asian hosts showed they know how to flatter and deliver what Trump wants.
But the juxtaposition is not only a matter of summit agendas and host attitudes. Trump’s actions speak loudly about his attitudes to the world today, and pose many questions for geopolitics and business.
How do we deal with an America that puts itself first and foremost? How do we proceed when it chooses to be absent? These questions are not completely new, but answers are needed as we approach the second year of the Trump presidency.
America First 2.0
The slogan has always emphasised making America great again, and putting its interest first. But trends point to revisions and potential strengthening of policies to do so. This is driven not by how other governments respond, but instead from politics within the US itself.
The federal government shutdown started on Oct 1 even before Trump left for Asia, and has now ended. The 43-day disruption upset many citizens. Resolving the impasse led to a mammoth budget deficit, and finger-pointing continues over whether the Democrats or Republicans are to blame. The president’s approval rating is at a record low, and many now openly disapprove of his administration.
Republicans were defeated in a number of elections, and New York City elected democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani – whom the president has openly opposed – as its mayor. For next year’s elections, more analysts predict that Republicans will lose seats and their current majority in the House of Representatives.
Within the Make America Great Again (Maga) movement itself, there is unease about a range of issues from inflation to compromises on visa approvals for foreigners who build and run factories. There is also a swirl of controversy about possible connections between Trump and the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
In the Supreme Court, there are legal challenges about trade sanctions that Trump has used as a signature tool against many countries. Added together, resistance seems to be growing from a number of quarters – after a year when Trump moved quickly and did as he wished.
Facing such domestic pressure, the administration may adopt a more selective approach to global engagements.
Trump is not defeated and seems undeterred. But expect every effort to be made to avoid becoming a lame duck. Some, perhaps, hope that the response will be compromise and moderation. But the more likely bet is that Trump will double down to lock in his base of supporters.
Not only will he continue to put America first, perhaps a bigger and even more beautiful Maga 2.0 is in the offing.
Minus One
That has implications for the rest of the world, and the G20 and Asian summits may be considered harbingers of more to come.
During his Asia tour, Trump hogged the headlines from that first jig when he arrived at Kuala Lumpur airport. He struck deals, most notably with China. Yet, although these deals were held alongside the Asean and Apec summits, they were outside the agenda. Moreover, while Trump was received with elaborate gifts and ceremony by the respective hosts Malaysia and South Korea, he left before the official summits convened.
This creates a conundrum. The power of the US remains primary and dominant. Even China seemed content to accept a truce, tolerating tariff levels higher than those imposed before and on other Asian countries, while backing away from its threat to cut off American access to critical minerals.
But even so, the attention of the Trump administration cannot be guaranteed – and certainly not regarding what the host or the rest of world leaders may wish to address. When Trump chooses to turn up, it is his agenda for America that is not only first but perhaps the only item on the agenda.
Even when the US does give attention to the concerns of others, it is passing. Take the “peace agreement” between Cambodia and Thailand that Trump witnessed and trumpeted while in Kuala Lumpur to advance his claim for a Nobel Peace Prize. This has quickly proved to be a mere bandage over deeper wounds; Thailand suspended the deal on Nov 10, barely weeks after the headlines faded.
At the time of writing, it is not evident that the US and Trump will make sufficient and consistent effort on the issue. This is not to say that Asians should wish that they would. Rather, without the US as a consistent and engaged partner, the imperative is to learn how to live and prosper in a Minus One world.
The G20 was initiated by the US, and first showed its use during the global financial crisis. At the time, even as No 1 in the world, the US recognised that others were needed to address global problems. Global problems still exist, and indeed have multiplied and grown in urgency.
More broadly, the G20 and global cooperation should not be reduced to questions about Trump’s absence or whether China advanced its interests. G20 today cannot by itself rally action in a Minus One world, especially given the ongoing diplomatic freeze between China and Japan.
But did the dialogues between the rest of the world make any progress in understanding the issues of common concern? Can differences between major powers be softened and move towards cooperation? Can there be progress in a Minus One world?
If the G20 and preceding summits in Asean and Asia can make a start on addressing those questions, that is helpful – and perhaps the most we can expect at the present.
The writer is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. His 2025 book is Island in the World: Singapore’s Geopolitical DNA
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