Canada’s China gambit: Navigating a new geopolitical triangle

WHEN Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney touched down in Beijing on Jan 14 – the first visit by a Canadian leader to China in seven years – the geopolitical landscape fundamentally shifted.

The trade deal he secured, slashing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) while winning market access for Canadian canola, lobster and other exports, represents more than an economic transaction. It signals a potentially seismic realignment in North American trade policy and a test case for middle powers navigating an increasingly fractured global order.

The numbers tell part of the story. China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola seed from 84 per cent to roughly 15 per cent, reopening a US$4 billion market. Canada, in turn, will slash tariffs on Chinese EVs from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent for up to 49,000 vehicles annually, rising to 70,000 within five years.