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美联储暂停加息的理由日益充分

除非即将发布的延迟数据出现重大意外，否则年内第三次降息的理由正在迅速减弱

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    • 迹象表明，当官方就业数据最终发布时，劳动力市场状况不会出现重大转折。
    • 迹象表明，当官方就业数据最终发布时，劳动力市场状况不会出现重大转折。 照片来源：路透社

    Mike Dolan

    Published Tue, Nov 11, 2025 · 06:51 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    随着美国政府在经历史上最长的停摆后重新开放，大量延迟的经济数据将在下个月陆续公布。然而，越来越多的美联储官员怀疑，这些数据所显示的疲软程度，并不足以支持年内再次降息。

    在超过40天没有官方经济数据的情况下，美联储官员似乎倾向于认为，劳动力市场表现相当稳健，金融状况依然宽松，而高于目标的通胀正朝着错误的方向发展。

    因此，除非即将发布的延迟数据出现重大意外，否则年内第三次降息的理由正在迅速减弱。尽管期货市场价格仍反映出12月再次降息的可能性约为三分之二，但这很可能被证明是过于乐观的。

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