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THINKING ALOUD

油价未及150美元，痛楚已然降临

霍尔木兹海峡航运持续受阻，货币疲软与成本飙升的连锁反应已波及亚洲

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Anita Gabriel

Anita Gabriel

Published Wed, May 20, 2026 · 06:45 AM
    • 根据Polymarket的预测，霍尔木兹海峡的交通在6月底前恢复正常的可能性仅为28%。
    • 根据Polymarket的预测，霍尔木兹海峡的交通在6月底前恢复正常的可能性仅为28%。 图片来源：路透社

    本文由AI辅助翻译

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    大宗商品研究巨头TD在最近一份报告的开篇便以沉重的语气写道：“风暴正在酝酿，仍可能将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶150美元或更高。”

    该机构试图提醒市场，当前相对的“平静”掩盖了一个事实，即“新一轮的焦虑期”已“近在咫尺”。

    这类预测或许听起来有些极端。但如今，随着越来越多重量级专家提出霍尔木兹海峡的封锁可能持续到6月、美伊战争或将拖延的可能性，这种预测已显得不那么遥不可及。

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