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伊朗与“海峡牌”：一场高风险的豪赌

该国如何将对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权转化为一场胜利

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    • 油价每上涨一美元，就相当于对伊朗的对手征税，更关键的是，也相当于对支持反对德黑兰的西方经济体征税。
    • 油价每上涨一美元，就相当于对伊朗的对手征税，更关键的是，也相当于对支持反对德黑兰的西方经济体征税。 插图：路透社

    Leon Hadar

    Published Thu, Apr 9, 2026 · 07:00 AM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    在现代战争的迷雾中，胜利很少属于拥有最多导弹的一方，而是属于控制着咽喉要道的一方——那些全球经济命脉所流经的狭窄通道。

    对伊朗而言，这个咽喉要道就是霍尔木兹海峡。若能有策略地运用这一优势，德黑兰或许能在冲突后不以战败国的身份出现，反而成为一个各方不情愿却又不可或缺的区域稳定调解者。

    地理杠杆

    无论从哪个角度看，霍尔木兹海峡都是地球上最重要的水道之一。其最窄处约33公里宽，全球五分之一的贸易石油和五分之一的液化天然气都需经此唯一的海上出口。

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