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2026年主要经济体展望
塑造中、欧、美经济表现的力量，基本上不受政策影响
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Published Sat, Jan 10, 2026 · 07:00 AM
本文由AI辅助翻译
新年伊始，全球三大经济体的表现迥异。美国经济一路高歌猛进，欧盟似乎陷入了低增长均衡，而中国则正在经历不平衡的增长。
尽管这些经济体面临的挑战截然不同，但它们有一个共同点：经济政策对其前景影响甚微。
中国的增长主要由巨额贸易顺差驱动，该顺差在2025年超过了1万亿美元。过去十年，中国领导人多次强调刺激国内消费的重要性，此举旨在缩小这一顺差。但消费占中国国内生产总值（GDP）的比重依然顽固地处于低位，如果日本的经验可作借鉴，那么这种情况在可预见的未来不太可能改变。
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