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为何这次的石油冲击与众不同

政府和中央银行已无政策弹药来遏制经济后果

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    • 鉴于政府应对的政策弹药所剩无几，任何油价的持续上涨都可能被放大。
    • 鉴于政府应对的政策弹药所剩无几，任何油价的持续上涨都可能被放大。 图片来源：BLOOMBERG

    DeeperDive is a beta AI feature. Refer to full articles for the facts.

    Ruchir Sharma

    Published Tue, Apr 7, 2026 · 05:38 PM

    本文由AI辅助翻译

    查看原文

    伊朗战争的结果尚不明朗，但其引发的石油冲击揭示了全球经济一个新的脆弱点。世界从未在如此高的赤字和债务水平下进入任何类型的危机。这一负担将限制各国政府缓冲能源价格高企所带来冲击的能力。

    第二次世界大战后的首次石油冲击发生在1970年代，恰逢一个新时代的开启，当时各国政府从偶尔出现预算赤字转为长期面临赤字。但在那时，美国和其他主要国家的典型赤字约占国内生产总值（GDP）的2%。

    如今，平均赤字已增加一倍以上；结果是，七国集团的平均政府债务水平已从占GDP的20%上升到超过100%。

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