US, South Korean officials estimate little chance of Trump-Kim meeting this year
The American president has downplayed the prospects of such talks happening
[WASHINGTON/BEIJING] US and South Korean officials estimate fading chances of a meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2026, said five people with knowledge of the situation.
Trump, the only US president to have met a North Korean leader, has been eager to jump-start talks with North Korea, but Pyongyang has shown little interest in diplomacy aimed at containing its nuclear programme.
The US has received no response from North Korea on holding a Trump-Kim meeting, and there is little time left before a regional summit in China in November where it might occur, said the five people – four of them briefed by senior officials from the US and South Korea, as well as a South Korean official.
North Korean state media has said Pyongyang would put tough conditions on agreeing to a bilateral summit, potentially including sanctions relief, even as Kim’s sister has said the two leaders have an “excellent” relationship.
Trump “open” to talks, nothing scheduled, official says
In August, the Republican president said he planned to meet with Kim later in 2026, and that the North Korean leader had responded to his outreach.
South Korea’s intelligence agency told lawmakers late in September that there was a 50 per cent chance of Trump and Kim meeting on the sidelines of the Nov 18 to 19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Shenzhen, China.
But on Monday, Trump, who met Kim three times in his first term, downplayed the prospects of such a meeting happening during the Apec meeting or a regional summit in the Philippines, also in November.
“I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting,” he told reporters at the White House.
Another South Korean official familiar with the matter said Pyongyang has made no move indicating it is preparing for a meeting with Trump. All of the people spoke on the condition of anonymity to relay private conversations.
SEE ALSO
Asked for comment, South Korea’s foreign ministry said: “Although it is difficult to predict a specific timeline, the government will continue to make necessary diplomatic efforts in close coordination with the US for talks between the US and North Korea to take place as soon as possible.”
On Oct 12, Seoul’s ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, said no concrete progress had been made towards a Trump-Kim summit.
North Korea’s permanent mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to queries.
“President Trump in his first term held three historic summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that stabilised the Korean Peninsula,” a White House official said, on condition of anonymity.
“US policy on North Korea has not changed. President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong Un, without any preconditions. No meetings to announce at this time. The leaders will meet at the appropriate time.”
In September, a senior US official told reporters that Trump was “ready” to speak with Kim and that “the ball is very much in North Korea’s court”.
A Trump-Kim summit could come abruptly
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said there is a less than 10 per cent chance of a meeting between Trump and Kim at the Apec summit.
“If Trump wants a meeting with Kim, I think the North Koreans are looking for a costly public signal,” he said, arguing that a recent US decision to scale back exercises with South Korea had not been sufficient.
Washington has occasionally sought the assistance of China, which has maintained close ties with Kim, in brokering talks with North Korea.
But cordial talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, set to continue at Apec, have not produced breakthroughs with Pyongyang.
South and North Korea remain technically at war under a truce that ended fighting in the 1950-1953 Korean War.
The US stations about 28,500 troops and military hardware in South Korea in combined defence against North Korea, which has pursued nuclear arms and ballistic-missile development. South Korean officials, citing private research group estimates, have said North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.
Trump’s meetings with Kim in 2018 and 2019, while historic, yielded no concrete results.
“I don’t know when they’re going to meet,” US ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel told an event in Seoul organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in South Korea on Wednesday. If they could arrange a meeting, she said, it would likely be announced abruptly.
“If it happens, then it’s going to happen the next day or within a couple of days’ notice.” REUTERS
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Share with us your feedback on BT's products and services
