US economic policymaking

Is the US falling victim to the resource curse?

Any protracted increase in oil prices is likely to be magnified by the fact that governments are running low on policy ammunition to counter it.

Why this oil shock is different

Toyota has announced plans to invest US$10 billion in the US over the next five years but only offered details on about US$2 billion.

Automakers plan billions in US investments but seek clear trade rules

Most of US President Donald Trump’s temporal nihilism operates on longer, less-legible timelines.

Trump is spending tomorrow’s security today

Research puts the burden of paying most of the tariffs on Americans, with the Yale Budget Lab saying in a report from late last month that the annual median cost of the taxes stands at around US$1,400 per household.

Fed’s Miran says data suggests Americans aren’t shouldering tariff hit

It’s possible to nudge the US dollar’s value lower without causing long-term interest rates to rise – thus achieving greater competitiveness in trade without surrendering the exorbitant privilege, according to a strategy mapped out by Stephen Miran, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Is the US dollar’s era of exorbitant privilege ending?

The Mar-a-Lago Accord idea, like Trump’s tariffs agenda, will not necessarily bring back well-paying jobs since labour-replacing technology, not international trade, is responsible for the changes in the pattern of employment in the US.

Envisioning the Mar-a-Lago Accord

A dose of humility will help the Jerome Powell-led Fed reduce the risk of another bout of slippages in analysis, forecasts, communication and policy design.

The Fed must resist repeating past mistakes

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely followed index of the economy in real time has turned negative., while the Conference Board and the University of Michigan both report steep declines in consumer confidence.

The coming US recession will be self-inflicted

Ford F-150 pickups on an assembly line in Michigan. Collectively, General Motors and Ford employ almost 180,000 people in the US.

Ford is as American as apple pie. Or is that Honda?