Upcoming EC projects that are exempt from new rules get a ‘bonus’, as buyers steer towards them: analysts

[SINGAPORE] Fresh restrictions on the executive condominium (EC) market are expected to steer buyers towards the last batch of projects exempt from the rules, while cooling developers’ appetite for upcoming EC land tenders.

In a move to rein in soaring EC prices and temper land bids, the government on Friday (May 8) announced that the minimum occupation period (MOP) for EC units will now be extended to 10 years. Previously, the MOP before an owner could sell their unit was five years.

A deferred payment scheme for new EC projects will also be scrapped. In addition, the required quota of new units reserved for first-time buyers will be raised from 70 per cent to 90 per cent, and the priority period extended substantially from one month to two years.

“We hope this will result in developers reducing their land bids and the prices for their ECs, as they can sell 90 per cent of their units (only) to first-timers during the first 39 months from the date of award of the site, before the developer additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) clawback kicks in at the five-year mark, or up to the six-year mark if the project is eligible for prevailing ABSD remission timeline extensions,” said Minister for National Development Chee Hong Tat.

Five upcoming EC projects on sites sold before the announcement will not be subject to the stricter rules, and analysts anticipate strong sales when they hit the market.

City Developments Ltd (CDL) has two projects in the pipeline to be launched next year, having clinched the Senja Close and Woodlands sites in August 2025.

Another Woodlands site was awarded to Sim Lian in January this year at a record high of S$794 per square foot (psf) per plot ratio, while a Sembawang Road plot went to JBE Holdings. Hoi Hup Realty acquired a Miltonia Close parcel last month.

These projects will yield about 1,970 new ECs, with launches slated from the second half of 2026 to 2027.

A CDL spokesperson said: “We recognise and support the government’s efforts to maintain a stable and sustainable EC market, ensuring that ECs continue to help young families who are first-time buyers and HDB upgraders to achieve their homeownership aspirations.”

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Another project, Coastal Cabana in Pasir Ris, is also expected to see sales pick up quickly, being the only EC currently on the market with sizeable unsold stock of about 150 units since its December launch.

New EC prices have risen sharply in the last few years.

PropNex data shows that median prices of new ECs surged 120 per cent from S$797 psf in 2015 to S$1,754 psf in 2025, outpacing the 96 per cent increase in their nearest comparable housing type, new 99-year suburban private condos.

Median prices of Outside Central Region (OCR) 99-year condos rose from S$1,150 psf to S$2,252 psf over the same period.

The new measures will apply to all EC projects on government land sale sites with tender closing dates on or after Friday.

Nicholas Mak, chief research officer of Mogul.sg, reckoned that the new restrictions should also apply to the pipeline projects, arguing that market-cooling measures have historically applied to both launched and unlaunched developments.

With the five yet-to-be-launched EC projects exempted, “the developers of these projects are handed an unexpected bonus as the new EC regulatory changes strengthen their pricing power”, he said.

Mak expects some of these developments to be launched close to a median price of S$2,000 psf.

The first two projects to come under the tighter rules will be a Canberra Drive site to be released for tender in May and a Sembawang Drive site to be offered in June.

PropNex CEO Kelvin Fong said that developers are likely to be cautious in bidding, “given the uncertainty as to how the market may react to the changes, the potential impact on initial take-up rates, and considerations on the purchasing power of first-time homebuyers who will form the vast majority of EC buyers at least in the first two years of the project launch”.

Longer MOP, fewer property flippers 

Analysts see the longer MOP as a necessary revision to bring the EC scheme in line with the public housing framework, where a 10-year MOP now applies to Plus and Prime flats.

At the same time, they reckon it is aimed squarely at the substantial gains that EC sellers have pocketed from resales in recent years.

Huttons Asia CEO Mark Yip pointed to a rising number of ECs resold after five years and making extraordinary gains of more than S$1 million.

“In 2025, there were 162 such transactions and the average holding period was 9.5 years. The biggest gain was more than S$2 million for a four-bedroom unit in The Tampines Trilliant in April 2026,” he said.

In every quarter since Q1 2023, ECs have topped resale percentage gains and grown increasingly profitable, based on data crunched for The Business Times by Cushman & Wakefield.

As ECs are launched at much lower prices – typically 20 to 30 per cent less – than new private properties, many EC buyers have been reaping substantial gains by selling their properties shortly after completion, said Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist of Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group.

Based on Realion’s analysis of Urban Redevelopment Authority data between 2010 and 2025, about 94.6 per cent of the 8,827 matched new sale-to-resale transactions took place within 10 years of reaching the temporary occupation permit (TOP) stage.

The majority of deals, about 76 per cent, took place within five to seven years after TOP, or less than two years after the five-year MOP. About a third of owners sold their units immediately after reaching the five-year mark, added Sun.

Fong noted that, while the impact on the resale market may not be immediate, the longer MOP could eventually reduce the supply of “younger resale ECs”, potentially steering buyers towards the private condo market.

Removal of deferred payment scheme

Realion’s Sun saw the scrapping of the deferred payment scheme (DPS) as the most significant change, which could temper initial take-up rates.

Huttons Asia’s Yip pointed out that more than 75 per cent of buyers at the last two EC launches – Rivelle Tampines and Coastal Cabana – opted for the DPS.

“This may discourage some HDB upgraders who have an outstanding loan from buying a new EC, as they may not be able to service two housing loans,” he said.

Fong added that the ending of the DPS could depress headline EC prices slightly, as units sold under DPS are usually priced at a 2 to 3 per cent premium.

More support for first-time buyers

The increase in the allocation quota for first-time buyers to 90 per cent, along with the extension of the priority period to two years, is expected to drag on sales at new EC launches, which now see only 30 to 40 per cent of units sold to first-timers.

The proportion of first-time EC buyers has been falling as prices rose, relative to second-timers who have larger budgets from the sale proceeds of their first home. In 2020, about half of EC buyers were first-timers.

The higher quota will “level the playing field for first-time buyers” who “do not have the same financial advantage”, said ERA Singapore CEO Marcus Chu.