The end of abundance

[NEW DELHI] From the early 1980s until the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the world economy enjoyed unusually good conditions. The Cold War ended, defence budgets shrank and hundreds of millions of workers joined the global market.

Energy and metals were mostly cheap, and supply chains stretched across borders on the assumption that goods would always move freely. Inflation was on a downward trend, owing partly to central banks and partly to the strong tide of peace, globalisation and plentiful supply they were swimming in.

That tide has turned. The decades ahead will be shaped by a geopolitical contest for energy supplies, industrial metals, rare earths, critical minerals and semiconductor chips. Water and food may eventually join the list. The competition will be fierce and, at times, violent.