China home price slump eases in sign market is stabilising

[BEIJING] China’s new home price declines abated for a third month in April, reinforcing hopes that the multi-year property downturn may finally be nearing a bottom.

New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidised housing, dropped 0.19 per cent from March, the smallest drop in a year, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday (May 18).

Resale home values, which are subject to less government intervention, decreased 0.23 per cent, the slowest fall since March 2025.

Analysts at firms including Citigroup and Bank of America have begun to suggest that the battered property sector is finally stabilising. A real estate recovery would help to restore household confidence and encourage spending as policymakers seek to shift the economy towards consumption and away from exports.

“We expect the strong momentum in sales growth to be sustained into the second half of this year,” Citigroup analysts led by Griffin Chan said in a recent note. “The property market heat is extending from top-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to more tier-2 cities.”

Local governments have added measures to support the housing market after the Communist Party’s Politburo, led by President Xi Jinping, pledged to stabilise the sector at a meeting last month.

The tech hub of Shenzhen eased homebuying restrictions in the city’s prime districts, no longer requiring people to have paid social security or individual tax for a year to become eligible.

Shenzhen’s move is “a direct echo” of the Politburo meeting’s directive to stabilise the property market, which “underscores policy continuity,” Michelle Kwok, HSBC’s regional head of real estate research, wrote in a recent note.

Neighbouring Guangzhou expanded property stimulus to boost demand, raising housing provident fund loan caps and granting a cash subsidy for new mortgages. At least 14 other cities announced property market easing measures recently, according to Citigroup.

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Green shoots have emerged in the used-home market, where sellers have tended to cut prices more than developers of new units.

Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts view this as part of the prolonged bottoming-out process, although they estimate it will take about a year or so for new residential inventories to reach a sustainable level. BLOOMBERG