Mainstream car COE charges to new record, outstrips luxury category as car show drives demand

[SINGAPORE] The Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premium for mainstream cars increased by 5.3 per cent to set a new record as prices for other categories were generally stable.

In November’s first round of bidding, which closed at 4 pm on Wednesday (Nov 4), the mainstream Category A rose S$6,997 to S$139,001.

This handily broke the previous record of S$$133,009 set in early September, and is also higher than both the luxury and open category premiums.

Observers said this was a result of the final car show of the year – The Car Expo from Oct 22 to 24 – concentrating demand in a high-pressure market in which dealers competed for numbers, and buyers raced to beat a S$10,000 drop in electric vehicle incentives at the end of the year, among other factors.

“We’re now in the middle of Q4 so everybody ‘chiong’ (rushed), and that really pushed the premium up,” said Vincent Ng, automotive consultant with the Vincar group. “It’s not just consumers but also dealers, because they would have collected orders at The Car Expo and now need to fulfil them before the end of the year.”

The other categories remained largely stable, with none budging by more than a single percentage point. Category B, for luxury cars, was up 0.3 per cent at S$132,334; while Category E (Open), increased just 0.2 per cent to S$135,998.

The go show

Intense competition among Chinese EV brands in Category A has driven elevated premiums throughout 2026, which has come to a head post-show.

Industry sources said that sales numbers from The Car Expo were generally good. Indeed, in the rounds leading up to the show, some dealers reported slower sales as consumers waited for better deals at the event.

A Land Transport Authority spokesman said: “COE prices remain elevated, likely due to strong demand for mass-market EVs that qualify under Cat A. The recent Car Expo... may have contributed to increased demand in this period.”

Raymond Ng, managing director for MG distributor Eurokars EV, said that China brands at the show had a “decent outing”, and most did brisk sales, including MG.

Stronger bids for COEs this round were likely backed by large order banks from China EV brands with guaranteed COE sales packages as a result of The Car Expo.

Such sales packages require a dealer to deliver the car within a certain number of COE bids, typically six, at a fixed price and fuel aggressive bidding.

“People will not ‘chiong’ to this level unless they have those orders in the bag,” said the managing director of a Japanese car brand. “Now, there are only three bids left before the end of the year and prices increase because of rules – so they have to secure those COEs soon.”

“Chiong” and change

Observers also pointed to a number of regulatory changes that have maintained demand this year and could have spurred buying decisions over the past fortnight.

One longstanding factor is the reduction in EV rebates to a maximum of S$20,000 from S$30,000 currently after Dec 31. After that date, consumers will also pay more for cars of all types, not just EVs, due to changes in the Vehicular Emissions Scheme (VES).

“Don’t forget, with the VES changes normal cars and hybrids will be affected too. So naturally some brands slashed prices at The Car Expo to clear stock. Primarily, now it’s an EV game, but non-EVs are still a significant part of the market,” said Vincar’s Ng.

Under revised VES rules, a S$7,500 surcharge will be imposed on all non-EVs, up to a maximum of S$35,000 next year.

The recent introduction of loan curbs for private-hire vehicles that brings their financing in line with that of regular cars may also have triggered more bidding this round.

Private-hire vehicles (PHVs) had previously unrestricted loan quantums, but in the evening of Oct 29, Singapore announced a maximum loan amount of up to 70 per cent and a loan tenure limited to seven years. The changes took effect the next day.

“There were around five hours for people to sign the dotted line on PHV loans – and it’s not impossible that some of them did, given the current market situation,” noted Vincar’s Ng.

Other dealers said it is possible that loan agreements could be backdated, though the legality of such a move would be questionable.

Times they are a changing

Observers also said that with the forthcoming COE review and major changes planned for the system including combining Categories A and B, buyers may have decided to act before the situation becomes even more uncertain.

Jason Lim, managing director of Mazda Singapore, said: “(Buyers) are seeing a lot of changes happen and more to come: VES, the EV adoption incentive, COE review, loan curbs to private-hire cars – all this adds uncertainty. Some buyers may have decided to act quickly so as not to lose out.”

While it is typical that car dealers intensify sales efforts towards the end of the year to improve results, observers said dealers may also have acted with an eye on making bank amid ever-increasing competition.

New models are being introduced frequently. For example, XPeng’s L03 small sport utility vehicle kicked off sales at The Car Expo. It is a top seller for the brand in its domestic market, and reportedly booked good sales at the event.

Some major players are poised to enter in 2027 as well. This includes Chery’s Jetour, which will be distributed by Vincar Group; Li Auto, a strong seller in China; and Geely, the eponymous brand of the manufacturer that is China’s largest carmaker behind BYD.

But, for now at least, observers do not see the mainstream car premium spiking further.

“I think the pressures are already priced in, and it will be school holidays soon when we see demand taper off,” said Mazda’s Lim. “Then again, now there are no fundamentals. What held true last time doesn’t hold true now.”