US inflation

US consumer spending edges up as inflation accelerates

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 0.1% last month

Earnings at S&P 500 constituents rose 28.4% in Q1 2026 – their fastest growth since Q4 2021, when the world was emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic.
MARK TO MARKET

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The budget is tipped to remain in the red over the coming years, just as the Middle East conflict darkens the economic outlook.

Australia seeks reform, inflation restraint in budget balancing act as Iran war darkens outlook

The central bank has lifted interest rates three times this year to head off the war-driven energy shock

Having cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is poised to succeed Jerome Powell after May 15.
THINKING ALOUD

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Goolsbee notes that inflation is rising even in service industries largely insulated from the impact of tariffs and rising oil prices due to the US-backed war with Iran.

Recent inflation data is ‘bad news’, US Fed official says

The central bank leaves the policy rate of interest unchanged in a divisive vote last week

About 45% of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford petrol in the next few months, up from 30% shortly after Trump won re-election. 
THE BOTTOM LINE

A war the public didn’t ask for

Rising fuel prices in the US cut across party lines in a way that military strategy does not

The latest spending figures are consistent with a consumer who has grown more cautious over the last six months amid cost-of-living concerns and a sluggish job market.

US consumer spending barely rose

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 0.1% after stagnating in January

The war has caused oil prices to surge and renewed upward pressure on inflation, which has run above the Fed’s 2% target for five years.

US inflation expectations jump with Iran war, Fed survey finds

Food costs are seen rising by 6% over the next year

The Fed is in the difficult position of needing to balance the risk of higher inflation amid a fresh shock and downside risks to the labour market, says Powell.

US Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, expects inflation to rise

Oil prices have jumped from below US$80 a barrel to US$108 ahead of the central bank’s policy decision

Oil has been hovering around US$100 a barrel after surging 35% in a week following the Feb 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
NEWS ANALYSIS

Stuck between inflationary and deflationary forces, Fed almost certain to keep rates unchanged

Officials warn any rate-cut plans will be shelved until the aftershocks of the Iran war become clear