US inflation

Worst of US inflation may be over if Iran peace deal sticks

The details of what Washington and Teheran are calling a memorandum of understanding have yet to be released

Former Fed chair Janet Yellen (left) speaking with Amundi CEO Valerie Baudson at the Amundi World Investment Forum 2026.

Rate hikes unlikely despite hot inflation and strong jobs in US: Amundi

Former Fed chair Janet Yellen also does not expect rate increases soon, due to uncertainty over oil prices

President Donald Trump says: "Nowadays when you have good reports, the market goes down because they think they’re going to raise interest rates.”

Trump says Fed rate increase would be wrong, again calls for cut

Rate-hike expectations were reinforced after a hot May jobs report on Friday 

Some of Warsh’s colleagues are already portraying the fight against inflation as gaining urgency.

US Fed’s Kevin Warsh inherits economy increasingly squeezed by inflation

Inflation has been above the central bank’s 2% target for more than five years

The three-month US-Israel war with Iran has severely disrupted the shipping of commodities and raised prices of goods including energy, aluminium and fertilisers.

US services sector growth picks up in May; businesses face higher prices for inputs

The non-manufacturing PMI is up at 54.5 from 53.6 in April, beating a forecast of 53.8

The numbers on spending, meanwhile, suggest consumers have become more cautious amid cost-of-living concerns and uneven hiring trends.

US consumer spending edges up as inflation accelerates

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 0.1% last month

Earnings at S&P 500 constituents rose 28.4% in Q1 2026 – their fastest growth since Q4 2021, when the world was emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic.
MARK TO MARKET

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The budget is tipped to remain in the red over the coming years, just as the Middle East conflict darkens the economic outlook.

Australia seeks reform, inflation restraint in budget balancing act as Iran war darkens outlook

The central bank has lifted interest rates three times this year to head off the war-driven energy shock

Having cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is poised to succeed Jerome Powell after May 15.
THINKING ALOUD

Kevin Warsh’s Fed: Reform agenda or reputational risk?

His early actions would show if he is a disciplined reformer or a politically convenient appointment

Goolsbee notes that inflation is rising even in service industries largely insulated from the impact of tariffs and rising oil prices due to the US-backed war with Iran.

Recent inflation data is ‘bad news’, US Fed official says

The central bank leaves the policy rate of interest unchanged in a divisive vote last week