geoeconomics

THE BOTTOM LINE

Why the United Arab Emirates walked away from Opec

The economic logic of the decision is just as important as the political one

Asean is now viewed by the survey’s respondents as the most credible platform for upholding the rules-based order.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

Asean’s test in a fragmented global economy

South-east Asia’s resilience will depend on greater economic integration within the region and continued strategic engagement with external partners

One of the European Union’s goals of engagement with Asean is to build economic competitive advantage relative to other world powers, including the US.

Asean-EU summit: Forging a strategic front amid Middle East turmoil

As geopolitical volatility reshapes the global order, leaders from both blocs stressed that the security of their regions is ‘more interlinked than ever’

US President Donald Trump (left) with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan in October 2025. The most plausible outcome of US-China rivalry is not a clean transition from one hegemon to another, but a fragmented order.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

US-China rivalry and the Kindleberger Trap: Why inaction – not escalation – is the biggest risk

In periods of transition, the greatest threat may not be the clash of powers but the absence of leadership

Leaders at the fifth Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Summit in Kuala Lumpur last October. The 10 Asean states, along with Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, are signatories to the trade pact.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

Strengthening Asean’s economic resilience through RCEP’s 2027 review

Practical reforms will make South-east Asia’s biggest trade pact more effective and beneficial

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been one of Europe’s most vocal critics of US and Israeli military actions in the Middle East in recent weeks.

Spain’s economic endorsement of China is a major Trump rebuke

Could warmer ties between Madrid and Beijing help move EU closer to China?

Most of the leverage Beijing had over Teheran rested on the money it was paying for oil, which will end if the blockade halts exports.
THE BOTTOM LINE

The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran

Washington hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands, but the latter may choose to wait and see

Every US dollar added to the price of oil is a tax on Iran’s adversaries and, critically, on the Western economies underwriting opposition to Teheran.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Iran and the ‘Strait card’: a risky high-stakes gamble

How the country could turn its control of the Strait of Hormuz into a victory

A building destroyed by US-Israeli air strikes on the campus of Sharif University of Technology
 in Teheran. Even before the destruction wrought by this phase of the conflict, Iran’s civilian economy suffered from severe underinvestment.

The road to de-escalation with Iran

There is an off-ramp for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but it requires taking economic incentives seriously

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stopped short of explicitly naming the US or Israel as aggressors, a telling omission from a country that otherwise speaks with little diplomatic timidity.

Beijing’s calculated silence on the Iran war 

For China, the deeper strategic calculation is not about Iran’s survival, but about the shape of the emerging world order