geoeconomics

Spain’s economic endorsement of China is a major Trump rebuke

Could warmer ties between Madrid and Beijing help move EU closer to China?

Most of the leverage Beijing had over Teheran rested on the money it was paying for oil, which will end if the blockade halts exports.
THE BOTTOM LINE

The Hormuz blockade is as much about China as Iran

Washington hopes that Beijing will convince Iran to soften its demands, but the latter may choose to wait and see

Every US dollar added to the price of oil is a tax on Iran’s adversaries and, critically, on the Western economies underwriting opposition to Teheran.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Iran and the ‘Strait card’: a risky high-stakes gamble

How the country could turn its control of the Strait of Hormuz into a victory

A building destroyed by US-Israeli air strikes on the campus of Sharif University of Technology
 in Teheran. Even before the destruction wrought by this phase of the conflict, Iran’s civilian economy suffered from severe underinvestment.

The road to de-escalation with Iran

There is an off-ramp for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but it requires taking economic incentives seriously

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stopped short of explicitly naming the US or Israel as aggressors, a telling omission from a country that otherwise speaks with little diplomatic timidity.

Beijing’s calculated silence on the Iran war 

For China, the deeper strategic calculation is not about Iran’s survival, but about the shape of the emerging world order

The current crisis in the Middle East may drive a qualitative leap in China-Asean economic intereaction.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

A new logic of China-Asean economic integration emerges from the Middle East conflict

The global economy is moving from one driven by the gains of globalisation to one shaped by the pricing of security risks

American companies are increasingly being viewed through a political lens, regardless of sector or corporate behaviour.
THE BOTTOM LINE

European policymakers are losing faith in American business

The implications extend far beyond the Atlantic

Asia’s heavy reliance on imported energy, much of which transits through vulnerable routes, makes it acutely sensitive to supply disruptions.

When supply shocks outlast conflict

Markets brace for prolonged economic shock sparked by energy disruptions

It is a world where the founding principles of the WTO, which were based on equal treatment and protection for the less powerful, are visibly ebbing away.
THE BOTTOM LINE

In trade’s ‘law of the jungle’, the winners are clear

It is China and the US that prosper when power sets the terms for global commerce

The 1953 Nissho Maru incident is largely forgotten, but prefigured the great geopolitical emergencies of subsequent decades.

A forgotten crisis explains today’s oil shock

With oil and gas supplies soon running out, Iran’s US$2 million-per-ship fee for safe passage to non-hostile nations seems pretty competitive