Geopolitics

World Bank warns of growing geopolitical commodity shocks, beyond oil crisis

Increasing geopolitical risk, despite the market resilience displayed so far, is weakening the global order

When Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meets US President Donald Trump in Beijing in mid-May, he will see Trump as the leader of a faded power, full of danger yet destined to decline.

China thinks America is declining but still uniquely dangerous

It sees Donald Trump as both symptom and accelerant of this deterioration

The UAE today is not a pure petrostate. Thus, while high oil prices will boost the country's oil revenue, they also hurt the global economy that drives the rest of the Emirati portfolio.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Why the United Arab Emirates walked away from Opec

The economic logic of the decision is just as important as the political one

A JPMorgan survey of 333 investment firms for the super-rich published in February found one in five rank geopolitics as their top risk, outpacing concerns over liquidity and inflation.

World’s super-rich boost conflict economy wagers amid Iran war

Billionaires are already pocketing outsized gains from the financial shocks

Asean is now viewed by the survey’s respondents as the most credible platform for upholding the rules-based order.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

Asean’s test in a fragmented global economy

South-east Asia’s resilience will depend on greater economic integration within the region and continued strategic engagement with external partners

One of the European Union’s goals of engagement with Asean is to build economic competitive advantage relative to other world powers, including the US.

Asean-EU summit: Forging a strategic front amid Middle East turmoil

As geopolitical volatility reshapes the global order, leaders from both blocs stressed that the security of their regions is ‘more interlinked than ever’

European confidence in American leadership is at an all-time low; more people in Spain, Italy, France and Germany now regard the US as a threat than a “close ally”, a poll shows.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Are Europe and America headed for divorce?

For now, the two sides remain locked in an unhappy marriage

US President Donald Trump (left) with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan in October 2025. The most plausible outcome of US-China rivalry is not a clean transition from one hegemon to another, but a fragmented order.
NEW GLOBAL ORDER

US-China rivalry and the Kindleberger Trap: Why inaction – not escalation – is the biggest risk

In periods of transition, the greatest threat may not be the clash of powers but the absence of leadership

US President Donald Trump has oscillated between declaring total victory and threatening to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age”.

The art of no deal: Why the US-Iran stalemate may be structural

Both sides say they want an agreement, and neither is creating the conditions for one

The chokehold on Strait of Hormuz has revealed a new geo-economic weapon that impacts not only energy but sectors such as transport, fertilisers and chemicals.
THE POLITICS THAT MATTER

Singapore’s resilience and ‘unnatural resourcefulness’ amid global shocks

The nation’s ‘resources’, built through infrastructure, markets and trusted relationships, may prove critical in times of disruption