Jakarta

THE notion of creating "travel bubbles" in South-east Asia - a region of more than 650 million people - for essential business and official travel in the middle of a global pandemic has the appearance of one of two things: optimism or desperation.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc is banking on the former.

A fortnight ago at its annual leaders' summit, held virtually in Hanoi due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the grouping signed a declaration on a travel corridor arrangement framework. The framework seeks to "develop a common set of pre-departure and post-arrival health and safety measures to protect the well-being and safety of our citizens, and emphasise that travellers shall strictly abide by the prevailing public health regulations required by the authorities of the receiving countries".

Region-wide tourism travel within a bubble, like something out of a Star Wars prequel, remains prohibited - at least for now.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, whose trillion-dollar economy relies on exports, foreign direct investment and tourism, among other things, has been a major proponent of the travel bubble initiative for months, as the movement of people for business is essential for his country of 270 million people.

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"The arrangement will raise optimism that our economic activities can be rejuvenated gradually by the disciplined application of health protocols," he said during the summit. "Our people cannot wait any longer. They want to see that our region gets up immediately."

It is worth noting, however, that Indonesia currently has the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths in South-east Asia. On Sunday, Indonesia reported its record daily rise in infections with 6,267 cases, bringing the total to 534,266. This was the third record high in a week for South-east Asia's largest economy. The data showed 169 new coronavirus deaths, taking the total number of fatalities to 16,815.

Many observers are urging extreme caution when it comes to creating such a travel bubble, especially given the ambition to have it in place by as early as the first quarter of 2021.

"Discussions about creating an Asean travel bubble are likely to face considerable challenges from the ongoing risks of new waves of Covid-19 cases in various countries, as has occurred in Malaysia as well as many countries in the European Union during recent weeks," said Rajiv Biswas, executive director and Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, who is based in Singapore.

"With vaccines now being considered for emergency use imminently in the US, UK and EU, it may be more pragmatic for the Asean nations to give high priority to a coordinated approach on vaccination programmes," he added. "If Asean nations do not act to acquire vaccines with a sense of urgency, this will prolong the economic damage to key sectors of the Asean economies such as tourism, business travel and commercial aviation for each additional month of delays in starting their immunisation programmes."

Lin Neumann, managing director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia, noted that Asean would not exist in its current form without the connectivity that direct, affordable air travel makes possible within the region. "It is for the reason that allowing some kind of safe travel bubble within Asean is seen as vital by many governments. Beyond tourism, travel is literally the oil that keeps the economic engine in Asean running," he said, adding: "That said, it is extremely important that governments not rush into bubbles and risk spreading the disease further and faster. It should be possible to safely operate the bubbles between some cities, like Singapore and various capitals, with sufficient testing measures and safety checks to minimise risk."

In October, Indonesia and Japan announced a similar arrangement regarding essential business travel and the transport of medical professionals.

Also, government authorities in the Indonesian tourist island of Bali are in discussions with Chinese authorities about opening a travel corridor by next February for Chinese tourists - the second-largest group of annual visitors.

To show just how complicated a bilateral arrangement can be, Singapore and Hong Kong were due to launch a travel bubble on Nov 22, but those plans were pegged back by two weeks after Hong Kong experienced a fresh surge of cases in the days leading up to the bubble's start date. That said, it does not mean travel bubbles will work everywhere in South-east Asia, one of the most far-flung and geostrategic regions in the world.

"It does not really make sense to suggest this to happen for all of Asean anytime soon," said Alexander Feldman, chairman, president and chief executive officer of the US-Asean Business Council. "However, countries like Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, where the Covid-19 pandemic situation seems to be stable, could make sense. "Bottom line, the health crisis has to be addressed first and in-country controls, testing and tracing working before you can open up to others."