CHINA'S debt burden is only going to get bigger. Total borrowing has grown rapidly to reach about 250 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year, raising concerns about runaway credit. But pressure to meet unrealistic economic growth targets will delay any sustained effort to bring debt back down.

The government's latest five-year plan highlights the dilemma. Prime Minister Li Keqiang pledged that the world's second-largest economy will expand by at least 6.5 per cent a year, in real terms, until 2020.

Meanwhile, planners expect total "social financing" - a broad measure of private sector credit - to grow by 13 per cent in 2016 alone. So even if inflation reaches the optimistic target of 3 per cent, debt will outstrip nominal GDP. Extend those trends, and borrowing will hit about 290 per cent of annual output by 2020.