HOW high will oil prices climb? Global oil price surges have tended to cause fears of a global bear market and recession. Whilst Jurong Island's centrality in Asian oil and oil products trading makes high prices a mixed blessing, if a global recession struck, the hit to world trade would likely send Singapore - and the Straits Times Index - reeling. Nosebleed energy prices can hurt.

Economically, however, oil's tale is nuanced. Current Russian bans are mostly symbolism. Europe is unlikely to follow the United Kingdom and the United States in banning imports. Moreover, high oil prices mostly shift output and consumption around. They don't squash it outright.

Russia is a huge oil producer. Its exports comprise about 10 per cent of total global oil consumption. Even though Singapore gets most of its oil and gas from Middle Eastern suppliers, Malaysia and Australia, prices would likely surge globally if Russian crude were cut off. Refineries and petrochemical facilities would face higher costs, although they could likely pass much, if not all, of that to end consumers. Regardless, with natural gas firing 95 per cent of Singapore's electricity, there would be a hit.