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Goldman Sachs says maintains bullish view on commodities
[BENGALURU] Goldman Sachs Commodities Research said it remains bullish on commodities and views the current weakness in the complex as a buying opportunity.
The upbeat view was based on strong demand growth, supply disruptions and depleting inventory levels in energy and metals markets, the Wall Street bank said in a note dated Wednesday.
Goldman maintained its overweight recommendation for the sector and its forecast for a 12-month return on the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) of 10 per cent.
The bank said it believes concerns relating to weak demand in emerging markets, a trade war and the exit of Opec and its allies from crude supply cuts - the recent drivers of oil and commodity price weakness - have been "oversold."
"The momentum in oil has already turned on news of tighter Iranian sanctions and additional supply disruptions. In metals, we believe Chinese domestic concern over credit availability ... is set to reverse given recent policy shifts in China," it said.
Goldman said it expects the impact on commodity markets from escalating trade tensions to be "very small," with the exception of soybeans, where flows cannot be rerouted given the size of US exports and Chinese imports.
Auto tariffs, if implemented, would pose the greatest risk to global metals demand, it added.
The bank said it expected the US dollar to weaken, while a combination of stable demand and policy easing in China should likely support metals demand in the second half of the year.
In oil, the market would likely remain in deficit in the second half of 2018 despite higher production by core Opec producers, with rising supply shocks potentially threatening both further price rises and global economic growth.
Actual and likely production losses would exceed a proposed 1 million barrel per day (bpd) increase in output from Opec and its partners, and would push inventories to very low levels, it said.