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Oil prices not as well-anchored as Opec claims

Uncertainties that could cause price swings include the US oil industry; the return of Iran to oil markets; demand in China; and the return of political oil risk premium

With estimates ranging between zero and as much as one million bpd of extra Iranian oil supply next year, Opec may confront yet another period of weaker oil prices, which some poorer members can barely afford.


TO hear Opec ministers in Vienna last week, one would think that the cartel's battle for market share is a complete success and oil prices are now firmly anchored where they are. "The strategy is working . . . It will take time for markets to rebalance," was the mantra from Opec

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