A lot at stake for Workers' Party in defending Aljunied GRC

Singapore

WHILE the stakes are higher for the Workers' Party when it comes to defending Aljunied GRC, a win there could decisively secure the constituency for the party in future elections, observers told The Business Times.

"For the Workers' Party, a lot is at stake - the sustainability of the party and the influence of the party," said political observer Felix Tan, an associate lecturer at SIM Global Education (SIM GE), said.

Aljunied GRC is one of WP's two crown jewels, and losing it would be a big blow to the party as it would mean losing five seats at one go, said Eugene Tan, law don from the Singapore Management University (SMU).

The party has six seats after defending Aljunied GRC and stronghold Hougang SMC, WP's other crown jewel, at the 2015 General Election. While it secured Aljunied GRC in a historic win with 54.62 per cent of the votes, its vote share slid to 50.96 per cent in 2015. That year, all wards in Singapore saw a big swing towards the ruling party as the country celebrated its Golden Jubilee and mourned the death of founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew.

"If they do win (Aljunied GRC), I think it does send a message to the PAP that this probably will become another Hougang," SIM GE's Dr Tan said, adding that it would signal that the WP is there for the long haul, making it much harder for the PAP to wrest power back in future.

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However, some believe that Low Thia Khiang and WP stalwart Chen Show Mao's decision to not contest the July 10 election could make the battle a potentially more difficult one. However, SIM GE's Dr Tan sees Mr Low's departure as a good move for the party. "It reduces the opportunity for the PAP trying to say that WP is still mismanaging or poorly managing the town council," he said.

Instead, it sends a message that WP is ready for change and to move forward with a new slate of candidates, both of whom are familiar to voters, Dr Tan said of their replacements, former Non-Constituency MPs Leon Perera and Gerald Giam.

Meanwhile, observers believe the controversy and lawsuit surrounding Aljunied-Hougang Town Council is unlikely to weigh on voters' minds by now. Instead, against the backdrop of a public health crisis and its economic fallout, the question remains whether voters are likely to opt for a flight to safety - by banking on the ruling party - or to pursue the broader agenda of installing opposition voices in Parliament.

Tan Ern Ser, a sociologist from the National University of Singapore (NUS), said based on past elections, there is a strong likelihood that voters would tend to run into the safety provided by the incumbent, particularly one with a reasonably good track record, in a crisis situation. This means "a vote for the WP would be largely a vote for 'having an opposition in Parliament'," he said.

SMU's Prof Tan said: "Aljunied voters do know the very unique position they are in, as the only GRC that is in opposition hands, and in this particular instance, I suspect that the so-called national considerations will perhaps weigh a bit more on the voters' minds rather than the municipal."

SIM GE's Dr Tan disagrees, believing that voters may choose a safe party that can help them weather the economic recession and save jobs.

Among the PAP's team at Aljunied GRC, three candidates were previously fielded there in 2015, while two are new faces. On Tuesday morning, they were accompanied by ex-minister and former PAP chairman Lim Boon Heng, who rubbished suggestions that the PAP slate is a "suicide squad", saying "If it was a suicide squad, how did they pull off a marginal loss to the WP the last round?"

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