Thailand’s exports rose year-on-year for the sixth consecutive month in January and at a faster pace and more than expected, and the commerce ministry said shipments should continue to increase in the first quarter.

Customs-based exports climbed 10 per cent in January from a year earlier, compared with a forecast rise of 8.8 per cent year-on-year in a Reuters poll, and followed December’s 4.7 per cent annual rise.

January exports dipped 0.6 per cent from the previous month, however.

The year-on-year export growth, which was the highest rate since June 2022‘s 11.7 per cent annual increase, was helped by improved global demand and a low base last year, the ministry said, adding uncertainties from geopolitical issues could pose trade challenges in the future.

An economic slowdown in China, Thailand’s major export market, is also a challenge, Keerati Rushchano, the ministry’s permanent secretary, told a briefing.

He said exports in the first quarter “should still be positive”, however.

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The ministry is targeting export growth of 1 per cent-2 per cent this year, after a 1 per cent fall in shipments last year.

“Export trends continue to expand, driven by the global economic recovery, easing of the global inflation situation, demand for food security measures from several countries, and economic cooperation in robust regions,” the ministry said in a statement.

In January, exports of industrial goods rose 10.3 per cent year-on-year while shipments of agricultural products jumped 14 per cent. Rice exports rose 17.6 per cent annually to 947,742 metric tons in January, with the value up 46 per cent year-on-year.

Thailand, the world’s second-largest shipper of the grain, expects 2024 rice exports to fall about 14.4 per cent to 7.5 million metric tons due to lower production and increased competition.

In January, shipments to the United States rose 13.7 per cent and those to Japan increased 1.0 per cent, while exports to China rose 2.1 per cent.

January imports were up 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, creating a trade deficit of $2.76 billion. REUTERS