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Japan may have to live with legacy of Abe's tactics for a long time

Published Tue, Mar 22, 2016 · 09:50 PM
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JAPANESE Prime Minister Shinzo Abe needs to find a quick fix for the problem of flagging growth in the world's third largest economy if he is to be sure of winning a politically important upper house parliamentary election in June. But that fix won't come from further monetary easing.

Even with interest rates now in negative territory, the economy is hardly roaring back into life. Meanwhile, structural economic reform as a tool for spurring growth is proving to be difficult. Mr Abe is thus turning back to the second of his three Abenomics "arrows" - fiscal stimulus - as the key to creating growth. This is an area where (unlike indirectly-acting monetary stimulus or slow-moving structural reform) he is in a position to get some action going.

First, however he needs to gain "cover" - political, financial and intellectual - for turning on the taps of public spending, especially when government debt stands at around 220 per cent of GDP. The way in which he is creating such cover is ingenious.

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