SUBSCRIBERS

UK residential market still sound despite potential 'Brexit'

Outlook for prices over medium-term remains supportive; buyers increasingly seeking value outside central zones

Published Wed, Apr 6, 2016 · 09:50 PM

THE UK residential market is in healthy condition as we enter the important spring season. Most indices show price growth in the order of 6 per cent per annum nationally; record employment levels support modest but stable gross domestic product growth of 2.2 per cent per annum. Aided by depressed oil prices, inflation is expected to remain low. This in turn lowers the pressure on the Bank of England to raise the base rate and supports activity in the mortgage market.

This backdrop is important, as recent headlines in national and international press suggest a rather gloomier picture. The referendum on Britain's relationship with the European Union - colloquially referred to as "Brexit" - has come to dominate news coverage. The mainstream residential market is broadly undeterred by the EU referendum. There could be a modest negative price impact should British voters wish to leave the European Union, but it is more likely that some purchases will simply be delayed until after June 23. This could mean a busier than usual summer selling period, particularly if voters chose to remain.

International investors will balance any uncertainty against the potential currency arbitrage that could emerge. London's role as the world's de-facto capital city will remain unchallenged and this will continue to support demand for real estate. Although market risks are looming with a Brexit option, there are plenty of arguments to suggest that the UK will adjust relatively quickly to the new reality. While institutional structures will undergo large changes, the trading relationship with the rest of Europe will remain important to both the UK and the rest of Europe regardless of the outcome.

BT is now on Telegram!

For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to  t.me/BizTimes

Property

SUPPORT SOUTH-EAST ASIA'S LEADING FINANCIAL DAILY

Get the latest coverage and full access to all BT premium content.

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Browse corporate subscription here