SINGAPORE has upgraded its 2024 full-year forecast for non-oil domestic exports (NODX), with “modest growth” projected in the year ahead and an expected recovery in electronics.

NODX is now tipped to grow by 4 to 6 per cent year on year in 2024, compared with November’s forecast of a 2 to 4 per cent growth, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said in its quarterly review of trade performance on Thursday (Feb 15).

Meanwhile, it maintained its forecast for total merchandise trade of between 4 and 6 per cent growth in 2024.

EnterpriseSG said global electronics demand is projected to gradually recover as inventory levels normalise.

In terms of the global outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global economic activity will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2024, up from its previous estimate of 2.9 per cent in October, said EnterpriseSG.

The IMF also projected higher world trade volume growth in 2024, at 3.3 per cent, than in 2023. The World Trade Organization, too, expects global merchanidse trade to grow faster this year than last, said EnterpriseSG.

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In 2023, total merchandise trade fell 11.7 per cent year on year, after expanding 17.7 per cent the year before. This was driven by declines in both oil and non-oil trade.

Oil trade contracted by 16.3 per cent year on year, from an expansion of 47.5 per cent previously, amid lower oil prices than a year ago.

Non-oil trade shrunk 10.5 per cent year on year, after expanding 11.9 per cent in the previous year.

NODX dropped 13.1 per cent, after a growth of 3 per cent the year before, due to lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic products.

Electronic NODX declined by 19.7 per cent in 2023, after a 0.5 per cent increase the year before.

Non-electronic NODX, meanwhile, fell 11.1 per cent year, after recording a growth of 3.8 per cent in 2022.

NODX to Singapore’s top markets declined as a whole in 2023, with shipments to all top markets except the United States recording falls. Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia were the biggest contributers to the decline.

Total services trade fell 3.8 per cent year on year to reach S$837 billion in 2023, after a 22.4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous year.

In the fourth quarter, NODX declined 1.4 per cent year on year, easing from the previous quarter’s 19.5 per cent contraction.

Electronic NODX declined by 9.9 per cent, moderating from the 20.1 per cent contraction in Q3, while non-electronic NODX inched up by 1.1 per cent, reversing from the 19.3 per cent decline in Q3.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, NODX grew by 8.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, from 7.2 per cent previously.

Total merchandise trade contracted on a year on year basis for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q4, said EnterpriseSG. It declined by 2.1 per cent, but eased from the 16.5 per cent contraction in the third quarter.

Total services trade fell by 2.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, extending the previous quarter’s 6.9 per cent decline.