As Marcos Jr claims victory in Philippine polls, uncertainty remains over direction country will take

Ferdinand Marcos Jr claimed victory in the Philippine presidential election on Wednesday (May 11), 2 days after the polls closed, with his spokesman declaring that the 64-year-old ex-senator would be a leader “for all Filipinos”.

With official results still not yet available as of press time, an initial count that was almost complete showed that Marcos Jr - who is popularly known as “Bongbong” - had clinched over 56 per cent of the valid votes and more than twice that of his closest rival, Leni Robredo.

Throughout his campaign, Marcos Jr had expressed his intentions to continue the policies and programmes of the outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, who will step down from office at the end of June.

These include making infrastructure spending a priority, while sourcing for loans and attracting investments from China. However, some observers believe that Marcos Jr can only be judged once he lays down a new policy blueprint for the country rather than simply following what’s been done before.

Filomeno Sta Ana, the coordinator for the Action for Economic Reforms think tank, feels the incoming administration brings with it a deep uncertainty over what sort of direction the country will take.

“Both local and foreign investors are wary. There’s the history and record of Marcos Jr, the failure to articulate a concrete programme of governance during his campaign, and a reliance on motherhood statements,” he said.

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The election of Marcos Jr has already created an impact on the country’s stock market. On Tuesday, a day after the vote, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 3.14 per cent. JP Morgan dropped the Philippines to the bottom of its investors list following the election results, citing inflation and debt risks.

Control Risks, a specialist global risk consultancy, believes that concerns in some sections of the public around the potential return to authoritarian rule are “overstated”.

“(This is) mainly because the political economy that Marcos Jr would preside over and the external environment that he would navigate as president are unlikely to accept the curbing of civil liberties in any significant way,” said Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at the consultancy. 

According to him, the market remains in a “wait and see” mode as it braces “for what exactly could come from this extraordinary presidential agenda”.

“Local businesses claim to be broadly confident about mostly business as usual under a new Marcos administration,” said Aw.

There is no real indication that the business outlook and attitude toward foreign investment would change drastically under Marcos Jr, especially as the requirements of a post-pandemic economy would be sure to take precedence for the next administration.”

Marcos Jr has already stated he wants to be judged by his own actions, not by that of his late father whose iron-fisted rule lasted 21 years from 1965 to 1986.

The incoming government takes over a time when the country has eased Covid-19 restrictions for some months now and with normal economic activity largely resumed. There are still some worries on the ground, however, with unemployment rates still relatively high at 6.4 per cent and prices for daily goods, especially oil, surging since January.

Bobby Tuazon, a foreign policy expert at the Center for People’s Empowerment in Governance in Quezon City, said that Marcos Jr’s administration will be saddled with major domestic challenges such as the 13 trillion pesos (S$345.3 billion) in public debt, mounting job losses during the pandemic, and a low rating from foreign risk analysts that have made the country less attractive for investments.