China’s aviation fuel demand seen up 13% in 2024: CNPC research

CHINA’S aviation fuel consumption is likely to expand 13.1 per cent this year, extending a robust recovery last year on passenger travel, but the country’s crude oil imports may stay largely flat, according to forecasts by a research arm of state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

Aviation fuel consumption may hit 39.3 million tonnes this year, and crude oil imports are expected to rise 0.1 per cent to 565 million tonnes, or about 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) CNPC’s Economic & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual outlook on Wednesday (Feb 28).

Kerosene demand has been widely expected to grow further this year, as China’s international air travel demand gradually recovers in the post-Covid travel market. International traffic remained depressed, at 53 per cent of pre-Covid levels at the end of 2023, LSEG data showed.

Wider economic pressures have weighed on demand for diesel, a key fuel for trucks in the logistics and construction sectors, as CNPC expected diesel use to fall 2.8 per cent this year to 196 million tonnes.

Petrol consumption, however, may grow 1.3 per cent to 165.1 million tonnes, CNPC said.

Analysts have forecast China’s petrol demand will likely peak between 2024 and 2025, as a rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) continues at breakneck speed. EV sales are expected to account for 40 per cent of about 23 million total auto sales this year.

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National crude oil throughput is seen growing 1.8 per cent to a record 752 million tonnes, or 15.04 million bpd, with average refinery utilisation rate pegged at 78.3 per cent, off slightly from last year’s 78.9 per cent, CNPC added. REUTERS