Third time’s the charm: Prabowo claims victory in Indonesia presidential election

[JAKARTA] Having failed twice before to become Indonesia’s president, Prabowo Subianto – a 72-year-old minister and former special-forces commander – finally tasted success on his third try on Wednesday (Feb 14), as he claimed victory in the first round of the presidential election.

This followed the results of an unofficial “quick count” by several independent pollsters, which put him firmly ahead of his two rivals in the race, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo.

Prabowo told a raucous crowd in a packed arena in central Jakarta: “All counts, all pollsters... show figures that Prabowo-Gibran have won in one round. This victory should be a victory for all Indonesians.”

The political veteran was referring to his vice-presidential running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the 36-year-old eldest son of outgoing President Joko Widodo. Widodo will step down in October after serving the maximum of two five-year terms.

In his speech, however, Prabowo called on his supporters to wait for the official results from the Election Commission before celebrating.

“We appreciate the ‘quick-count’ results that are available. Although we are grateful, it is important not to be carried away by the euphoria. We must remain humble,” he said.

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According to data from four pollsters, Prabowo – a frontrunner in several surveys during the campaign period – had scooped up roughly 58 per cent of the valid votes, based on ballots counted in a sample of polling stations across the country. As of 8.30 pm on Wednesday, more than three-quarters of the sample votes had been tallied.

These so-called “quick counts” by reputable pollsters have proven to be quite accurate in previous elections.

A preliminary count by the Election Commission was much slower. In this count, Prabowo garnered 57.7 per cent of the votes, with just 6 per cent of the ballots counted. The massive counting exercise is expected to continue for weeks, and the final results are to be announced by Mar 20.

With Prabowo holding a commanding lead so far, the battle seems over for the other two pairs of candidates. Anies and his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar were in second place with about 26 per cent of the “quick count” votes; Ganjar and Mahfud MD were third with just over 16 per cent.

Indonesia’s electoral rules require a candidate to win more than 50 per cent of the vote, and at least 20 per cent in 20 of the country’s provinces to win the presidency. If this does not happen, a run-off round will be held between the top two pairs of candidates on Jun 26.

The new government will be inaugurated by Oct 20; Cabinet announcements are expected to be finalised towards the end of the year.

As of press time, both Anies and Ganjar had not yet conceded defeat. They urged the public not to jump to conclusions on the outcome, and to wait for the official results.

As counting was underway, their campaign teams said they were investigating reports of electoral violations. Both teams described it as “structural, systematic and massive fraud”, although neither provided evidence.

Prabowo had campaigned on a pledge to continue Widodo’s key policies, such as downstreaming and the building of Nusantara, the country’s new future capital in East Kalimantan.

He also vowed to eradicate extreme poverty, and announced plans to launch a scheme to provide free meals to children and pregnant women.

Policy continuity

Political analysts and economists were cheered by the fact that the election outcome is likely to be decided in the first round, without the need for a run-off vote.

“Prabowo’s apparent one-round victory should remove uncertainty over who will lead the next administration. He, of course, appears to be Widodo’s choice of successor and has promised policy continuity, which should provide some reassurance to investors,” said Barclays economist Brian Tan.

“That said, we sense that investors are also cautiously watching what a President Prabowo would mean for fiscal policy, and whether the prudence under Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati will be maintained into the next term of government.”

DBS economist Radhika Rao said Prabowo’s victory, if confirmed, would suggest “policy continuity” over the next few years, especially on infrastructure developments, the commodity downstreaming push, the new capital city, as well as higher welfare spending.

University of Indonesia economist Jahen Rezki said he did not expect much change from the current economic policy of the Widodo administration.

“We may see business as usual, so economic growth may stay at around 5 per cent. The hope is that the president and vice-president will pick an economic team from technocrats to ensure economic policies are evidence-based and use accurate data, not because of economic nationalism or the interest of certain groups,” he said.

As many as 204 million voters fanned out across the country to vote on Wednesday, not only to pick their president for the next five years, but also parliamentary and local representatives.

The world’s biggest single-day election put up nearly 259,000 candidates, who were vying for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands.