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Why analyst forecasts are lessons in futility

It is common knowledge that all forecasts are wrong; return forecasts over time frames like one year or less are extremely unreliable

As William J Bernstein observed: "The reason that 'guru' is such a popular word is because 'charlatan' is so hard to spell."

WITH the end of 2018 and the start of 2019, comes the usual barrage of reports on strategists' stock market forecasts for the coming year. And rest assured, just like every year, someone is going to ask me where the FTSE 100 or the S&P 500 is going to be at the end of 2019.

It is...

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