Global economy

THINKING ALOUD

If everything is an AI crisis, then nothing is

Beware the absurd tyranny of what-if scenarios

The Strait of Hormuz – between Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman – is the key chokepoint for the global energy trade.

Middle East war sends economic tremors across the globe

As the US-Israel strikes on Iran escalate into a regional conflict, global markets grapple with energy vulnerabilities amid shipping disruption

If the US tech bubble implodes, the pain will spread beyond America.
THE BROAD VIEW

Reasons to worry about America’s investment position with the rest of the world

Data shows that our global financial system is plagued with serious but often ignored imbalances

Engineers working on a rocket engine in Zhejiang. The expected global job deficit in 10 to 15 years' time is not just a development issue, but also an economic and national security challenge, says the writer.
THE BOTTOM LINE

How to create jobs for the world’s 1.2 billion new workers

With only about 400 million jobs expected to be generated, we face a gap of staggering proportions

Snow cannons inside the TechnoAlpin factory in Bolzano, Italy. But, the manufacturing sectors in Italy (above), Spain, Germany and Austria all remained in contraction territory.

Global factory activity improves on growing demand

Key Asian exporters fare better, and the eurozone marks a return to manufacturing expansion

With gross public debt around 240% of GDP, Japan has long tested the outer limits of fiscal sustainability without crisis.

The return of fiscal dominance

As public debt rises and trade fades as a growth engine, central banks risk losing the independence that underpins global financial stability

The IMF says that AI represents significant upside for the global economy if its investment surge leads to rapid adoption and productivity gains are realised.

IMF sees steady global growth in 2026 as AI boom offsets trade headwinds

It forecast global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage point from its last estimate in October

The choice of the next Fed chair should be guided by the objectives set by Congress, not by President Trump’s political interests and personal whims.

The last days of Fed independence?

If Trump appoints a pliant Federal Reserve chair and monetary policy is loosened, it could stoke inflation and hurt global economic stability

Trump has become the proverbial fox in the henhouse at WEF with his “America First” mantra.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Tariffs, geopolitical tension and a US$800 billion deal: World Economic Forum 2026

Businesses batten down at Davos as global policy uncertainty reaches two-decade high

China's massive surplus in manufactured goods, now exceeds 12 per cent of the country’s own huge economy.

In 2026, trade drama will shift from Washington to Beijing

The real uncertainty lies in the rising resistance to China’s manufactured surplus