US Federal Reserve

What 2025 taught markets, and what comes next

AI hype, tariff shocks, rate cuts and Asia’s surprise winners. What really moved markets in 2025? And what could make or break 2026?

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivers remarks at a conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, Oct 14, 2024.

Trump praises Fed Governor Waller as ‘great’ after interview for Fed Chair

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he interviewed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller a day earlier as a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, praising him as “...

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee was one of two officials who voted against the central bank’s rate cut last week.

US Fed’s Goolsbee welcomes latest inflation data, says more rate cuts may loom 

FEDERAL Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday fresh inflation data is “good” and if it can be sustained it should help open the door for more interest rate cuts next year.

President Trump has previously indicated that he will announce his chosen successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell (right) early next year.

Trump says next Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates ‘by a lot’

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve will be someone who believes in lower interest rates “by a lot.”

Appointed to the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 2006 at age 35, Warsh became the youngest person ever to serve in that role.
THE BOTTOM LINE

Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair: A high-risk appointment

In a different context, he would merit serious consideration – but his current alignment with Trump on interest rates raises alarm

Separately, Bessent says that he expects US$100 billion to US$150 billion of tax refunds in the first quarter of next year.

Bessent sees one or two more Fed chair interviews this week

Trump is slated to interview the central bank governor Chris Waller on Dec 17 for the chair job

When it comes to the outlook for 2026, the “known unknowns" far outnumber what is known, says the writer.
THINKING ALOUD

Investors must reckon with unknowns

Take the market outlooks with a pinch of salt and watch for true surprises

The Fed’s updated economic projections reveal an increasingly optimistic view of growth paired with continued concern about inflation.

US Fed faces dual-mandate challenge amid a divided path forward

No clear policy prescription exists as policymakers balance sticky inflation against labour market risks

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to present higher growth forecasts that may cement the tentative rate hold officials have enforced since May.

Rich world’s rate-cut momentum is fading away

Central bankers are stepping back to assess how their progress so far is impacting growth and inflation

Trump expects the next chair of the central bank to consult with him on interest rates.

Trump names Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett as top Fed contenders: WSJ

The US president has moved to assert control over the central bank in his second term