FOR the seventh time in a row, the government has increased its land supply for private homes under the confirmed list of the half-yearly Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.

The Ministry of National Development (MND) announced on Wednesday (Dec 6) that it will be releasing sites that can yield a total of about 5,450 private residential units – including 710 executive condominium (EC) units and 515 long-stay serviced apartments – via the confirmed list in the first half of next year.

This is 5.6 per cent or 290 units more than the 5,160-unit supply for the current second-half 2023 GLS programme. It is also the highest supply on the confirmed list since H2 2013’s 5,960 units.

However, Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck said that, excluding the long-stay serviced apartments from the confirmed-list sites, the increase in the number of private housing units (including EC units) between H2 2023 and H1 2024 is much less, at just 50 units or 1 per cent. “We took out the supply of long-stay serviced apartments as they cannot be individually strata titled and sold to address homebuying demand from individuals.”

Based on MND’s figures (including ECs and long-stay serviced apartments), some analysts note that the 5.6 per cent half-on-half increase in the confirmed-list supply is a moderation from the the 26.2 per cent half-on-half increase in H2 2023.

Eight out of the 10 sites on the latest confirmed list are new. These include a private housing site next to Great World MRT station, an EC plot in Jalan Loyang Besar next to Downtown East’s recreational and retail offerings and a maiden private condo plot in the new Tengah estate.

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MND said that the supply injection from the H1 2024 confirmed-list sites will bring the total pipeline supply of private housing (including ECs) to about 59,100 units, and cater to the strong housing demand.

It added: “With housing demand expected to continue to grow in coming years, the increased confirmed-list supply for H1 2024 will help cater to demand and promote market stability and sustainability. The sites are spread out geographically to provide a variety of housing options to cater to varied needs.” 

All 515 residential units for a confirmed-list site in Media Circle in the one-north area are designated for the recently minted long-stay serviced apartment use.

Sites on the confirmed list are launched for sale according to schedule, regardless of demand.

On the reserve list – where sites are launched only upon successful application by a developer, or when there is sufficient market interest – MND will release land that can potentially generate an additional 3,460 private residential units (including 855 EC units and 220 long-stay serviced apartments). ECs are a public-private housing hybrid.

This is a tad more than the 3,430 units on the H2 2023 reserve list.

For the H1 2024 reserve list, the 220 long-stay serviced apartments will form part of the total 575 residential units for a plot in River Valley Green that is also next to Great World MRT station.

Plum site in Bayshore

Also on the H1 2024 reserve list is a private housing site in Bayshore Road that can yield 480 units. The plot, next to the upcoming Bayshore MRT station on the Thomson-East Coast Line, is the first private housing site in the Bayshore precinct. It will be made available for application in June 2024.

Cushman & Wakefield’s head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, Wong Xian Yang, noted that the site’s attractions include its proximity to East Coast Park; the future development on the site will also offer good sea views. 

The site is across the road from the Costa del Sol and The Bayshore condominiums. These were developed on sites sold by the state in 1997 and 1993 respectively.

MND is also supplying 13,900 square metres (sq m) gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space through the confirmed list of the H1 2024 GLS programme. This is higher than the 4,900 sq m for H2 2023. The commercial space on the reserve list in H1 2024 is 93,850 sq m, slightly more than the 93,350 sq m in H2 2023.

The H1 2024 reserve list also offers supply of about 530 hotel rooms, unchanged from H2 2023. There is no hotel room supply on the confirmed lists of H1 2024 and H2 2023.

No new office, hotel supply

Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia at CBRE, noted that there “continues to be no new office or hotel supply on the GLS programme, in anticipation of the state tender closing for the 6.5-hectare white site in the Jurong Lake District in March 2024”.

Nine of the 10 land parcels on the H1 2024 confirmed list are private residential sites (including one EC plot and one long-stay serviced residence plot). The remaining plot is a commercial and residential site in Tampines Street 94, a stone’s throw from the Tampines West MRT station.

The H1 2024 reserve list has nine sites. Of these, six are private residential sites (including two EC sites and one site that includes a mandatory long-stay serviced apartment component). There is also a commercial site, a white site and a hotel site.

MND said: “The government will continue to monitor economic and property market conditions closely and calibrate the supply of future GLS programmes, as necessary, to help meet demand and promote market stability.”

Song of CBRE said that, excluding EC units, the supply of private homes from the H1 2024 confirmed list would translate to about 9,500 units on an annualised basis. This is higher than 2022’s 7,099-unit developer sales and in line with the 10-year average developer sales of 9,706 units between 2013 and 2022. “This should provide ample future land-banking opportunities for developers, satisfy the resilient demand and hopefully stabilise prices,” she added.

Some analysts point to developers becoming cautious. “With the prevailing economic uncertainty, clouded business sentiment and elevated interest rates, added to the latest round of cooling measures in April 2023, the risks from private residential development remain substantial with developer participation in GLS tenders dropping noticeably in the past six months,” said Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore.

According to ERA Singapore’s chief executive officer Marcus Chu, private housing sites (excluding EC plots) tendered at GLS tenders received an average of 5.2 bids per site in H1 2022. This has moderated to 3.7 bids per site in H2 2023. “Some developers may have lower appetite for land now as they have already replenished their land bank. With 10 sites slated for release on the confirmed list in H1 2024, we expect a further dilution in the number of bids from developers,” he added.